THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING U
TODAY. WE ARE CONVENING THE
REVENUE REVENUE FORECAST
COUNCIL. TODAY'S OCTOBER TIME I
9:33 A.M. I'M TERESA. I'M SURE
OF THE FORECAST COUNCIL AND TH
FORECAST COUNCIL MEETING WILL
NOW COME TO ORDER. I'M JOINED
HERE WITH MY COLLEAGUES AT THE
COUNCIL INCLUDING CITY FINANCE
DIRECTOR JAMIE CARNELL . BRYN
DEL SWIFT AND COUNCIL PRESIDEN
. GOOD MORNING, BRYN DEL. AND
DEPUTY MAYOR TIFFANY WASHINGTON
OF COURSE. GOOD TO SEE YOU.
THANK YOU, DEPUTY MAYOR. GHOST
THREE ALONG WITH ME MAKE UP THE
VOTING MEMBERS OF THE FORECAST
COUNCIL, BUT WE ARE JOINED BY A
NUMBER OF MEMBERS FROM THE CITY
BUDGET OFFICE. I SEE DIRECTOR
JULIE ON THE LINE AND DEPUTY
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL STAFF, ALY
PENNUCCI ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF
OTHER STAFF MEMBERS MOST OF THE
EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE
BRANCH. GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE.
WE HAVE TWO SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES
ON THE AGENDA FOR TODAY. THE
FIRST ITEM IS A REVISED REVENU
FORECAST. WE LAST RECEIVED THE
REVENUE FORECAST IN AUGUST
BECAUSE WE MEET QUARTERLY. THE
COUNCIL IS NOW IN THE MIDST OF
ITS DELIBERATIVE REVIEW OF THE
MAYOR'S PROPOSED BUDGET AND THE
REVENUE FORECAST THAT WILL BE
PRESENTED TODAY HELPS IDENTIFY
NEW REVENUES THAT MAY BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE CITY COUNCIL
AS A CONSIDERS MODIFICATIONS TO
THE BUDGET. THE SECOND ITEM ON
THE AGENDA IS A PROPOSED POLIC
ADDRESSING HOW THE FORECAST
COUNCIL WILL SHARE THE RESULTS
OF WORKING COMPLETES AT THE
DIRECTION OF EITHER THE
EXECUTIVE OR LEGISLATIVE
BRANCHES. IN ADDITION TO
PREPARING QUARTERLY REVENUE
FORECASTS, THE OFFICE OF REVENU
FORECASTS WORKS INCLUDES
PROGRAMS THAT ALLOW FOR TWO
CONDUCT ANALYSIS AND OTHER
REVENUE RELATED RESEARCH. THIS
RESEARCH WAS CONFIDENTIAL
REQUEST MADE BY THE MAYOR'S
OFFICE OR MEMBERS OF THE CITY
COUNCIL AND RECOGNIZES THE
IMPORTANCE THAT ALL THE PARTIES
HAVE AND SHARED EXPECTATIONS
ABOUT HOW RESULTS OF SUCH
CONFIDENTIAL REQUESTS CAN OR
SHOULD BE SHARED. THE REVENUE
FORECAST OFFICE STRUCTURE THE
NOBLE HAS BROUGHT FORWARD A
PROPOSED POLICY FIRST CONSIDERE
TO HELP DEAL WITH THIS ISSUE.
DIRECTOR NOBLE WILL PRESENT IT
TO THE FORECAST COUNSELOR HERE
AFTER WE HEAR THE REVENUE
FORECAST UPDATE AND WE WILL GET
A CHANCE TO TALK TO THE PROPOSA
AND THE FORECAST COUNSELOR WE
CONCUR WITH THE POST POLICY. WE
CAN GO AHEAD AND MOVE FORWARD
WITH THE VOTE TODAY TO APPROVE
THE POLICY. ON THE SECOND ITEM,
I WILL UNDERSCORE THAT THIS IS
REALLY NOVEL COMMITTEE THAT WE
HAVE HERE. WE APPRECIATE THAT
THIS HAS BEEN BUILT ON THE
EXPERIENCE THAT WE HAVE OF THE
COUNTY AND STATE LEGISLATURE
WHERE THEY HAVE AN INDEPENDENT
REVENUE FORECAST OFFICE AS WELL
AND WE DO APPRECIATE THE
INDEPENDENT ANALYSIS OF THE
REVENUE FORECAST AND I CAN ALSO
APPRECIATE THAT IT'S IMPORTANT
TO HAVE CLARITY FOR THE REVENUE
FORECAST MEMBERS BOTH MEMBER
SERVING AS VOTING MEMBER'S OF
THE COUNCIL AND ALSO THE MEMBER
WHO SERVED WITHIN THE OFFICE
UNDER DIRECTOR NOBLE TO ENSURE
THAT EVERYBODY HAS A CLEAR SENS
OF WHAT THE EXPECTATIONS ARE S
THAT WE CAN GET GREAT
INFORMATION THAT IS PROVIDED BY
THE ANALYSTS WITHIN THE OFFICE
OF ECONOMIC AND REVENUE
FORECAST. THOSE OF THE TWO ITEM
ON THE AGENDA FOR TODAY. BEFORE
WE MOVE INTO AGENDA ITEM NUMBER
ONE, IS THERE ANY OBJECTION TO
THE AGENDA IN FRONT OF US THAT
HAS BEEN CIRCULATED AND
AVAILABLE ONLINE AS WELL.
HEARING OBJECTION, THE AGENDA
IS ADOPTED. LET'S MOVE ON IN.
WE DON'T USUALLY ACCEPT PUBLIC
COMMENT IN THESE MEETINGS,
RIGHT, DIRECTOR NOBLE? IF
ANYBODY WOULD LIKE TO REACH US,
THEY ARE WELCOME TO EMAIL
DIRECTOR NOBLE'S TEAM. I THINK
ALL THE INFORMATION IS POSTED
AND TIMELY MANNER SO WE ALL
RECEIVE IT AT THE SAME TIME AN
THAT INFORMATION IS ON THE
ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST
COUNCIL'S WEBSITE AND THEN YOU
WILL KNOW YOU ARE WELCOME TO
REACH OUT TO ANY OF US AS
INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE PART OF TH
EXECUTIVE OR LEGISLATIVE BRANCH
AT ANY POINT AND WE WILL BE
HAPPY TO SHARE ANY PUBLIC
COMMENT WITH A COUNCILMEMBERS.
WITH THIS IS SORT OF A DIFFEREN
TYPE OF PRESENTATION BECAUSE
THIS IS REALLY ABOUT SHARING
INFORMATION IN REAL TIME WITH
MEMBERS OF THE PRESS, THE
LEGISLATIVE BRANCH AND MEMBERS
OF THE COMMUNITY. WITH THAT,
LET'S MOVE INTO AGENDA ITEM
NUMBER ONE, APPROVAL OF THE
MINUTES. THERE IS A COPY OF TH
AUGUST 10th, 2023 MINUTES I HAV
BEEN CIRCULATED TO MEMBERS AND
IT'S POSTED ON THE ECONOMIC
REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL'S
WEBSITE. I WOULD ENTERTAIN A
MOTION TO APPROVE THE MINUTES.
THANK YOU SO MUCH. I WILL MOVE
THAT. IS BEEN MOVED AND SECONDE
TO APPROVE THE MINUTES. ARE
THERE ANY ADDITIONAL COMMENTS.
HEARING NO COMMENTS, SHAKING O
THE HEAD. THE MEETING MINUTES
WILL BE APPROVED. HEARING
OBJECTIONS, THE MEETING MINUTES
ARE APPROVED. MOVING ALONG .
ITEM NUMBER TWO IS THE
SUBSTANTIVE ISSUE IN HER AGENDA
TODAY, PRESENTATION OF THE
OCTOBER 2023 ECONOMIC AND
REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
PRESENTATION AND RECOMMENDATION
FROM THE OFFICE OF ECONOMIC
REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
REGARDING THE 2023/24 REVENUE
FORECAST. CONSISTENT WITH THE
REGULAR FORMAT, THE PRESENTATIO
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LED BY
THE FORECAST OFFICE CARE STAFF
FROM THE BUDGET OFFICE WILL ALS
BE WELCOME AND ENCOURAGED TO
PARTICIPATE. THANK YOU DO
DIRECTOR JULIE DINGLEY FROM THE
CITY BUDGET OFFICE AS WELL AS
MEMBERS OF HER TEAM. WE ALSO
ENCOURAGE PARTICIPATION IN THE
CITY COUNCIL CENTRAL STAFF. WE
HAVE WITH US TODAY DEPUTY
DIRECTOR ALY PENNUCCI ALONG WIT
TOM MIKESELL WHOSE BUDGET LEAD
AND ANALYST FOR US ON ALL THING
REVENUE. IF ANYBODY FROM THE
COUNCIL OR THE GROUP WOULD LIKE
TO COMMENT ON DIFFERENT ASPECTS
OF THE PRESENTATION AT ANY TIME
PLEASE FEEL FREE TO. THIS IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR EVERYBODY TO
ENGAGE AND PARTICIPATE. THE
PRESENTATION WILL INCLUDE A
FORMAL RECOMMENDATION AT THE
CONCLUSION THAT IS COMING FROM
THE REVENUE FORECAST OFFICE
REGARDING THE FORECAST AND IS
THE COUNCIL'S ROLL AGAIN , THE
VOTING MEMBERS OF THIS COUNSEL
TO CONFIRM OR REJECT OR MODIFY
THE RECOMMENDATION. AFTER THE
PRESENTATION, WE WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DISCUSS THE
FORECAST AND MAKE A
DETERMINATION BUT I DO WANT TO
ENCOURAGE FOLKS IF YOU HAVE
QUESTIONS OR, PLEASE GO AHEAD
AND JUMP IN . FEEL FREE TO RAIS
YOUR HAND BUT IF I DON'T SEE
YOU, JUMP RIGHT ON IN. THANK YO
VERY MUCH AND GOOD MORNING I'L
TURN IT OVER TO DIRECTOR NOBLE.
THANKS, DIRECTOR NOBLE.
>> THANK YOU, COUNCILMEMBER. I'
GOING TO DIE RIGHT IN MYSELF AN
PUT UP A POWERPOINT AND GET
STARTED HERE. ONE MOMENT.
DIVING IN YOUR THE I-9 FOR THE
PRESENTATION FOLLOWS OUR NORMAL
SETUP THERE WERE GOING TO GIVE
YOU AN UPDATE FOR THE ECONOMY
AND WHAT'S EVOLVED SINCE LAST
AUGUST. IT'S ONLY BEEN A COUPLE
OF MONTHS. THEN WE WILL DIVE
INTO THE ECONOMIC FORECAST IN
FORECAST OF HOW THE A COMEDY I
AT THE NATIONAL AND REGIONAL
LEVEL. OUR PRIMARY LEAD ON THE
REGIONAL MODELING. IN THE LAST
SECTION IS A REVENUE FORECAST
ITSELF WILL GO TO THE GENERAL
FUND AND ALSO HIGHLIGHT SOME
KEY NON-GENERAL FUND REVENUES.
DOESN'T INCLUDE JUMPSTART
PAYROLL TAX AND REET AND
TRANSPORTATION REVENUES. SO
WITH THAT, DIVING IN. YOU SEE
DEVELOPERS IN THE ECONOMY. THE
OVERALL MESSAGE IS SINCE
AUGUST, THE ECONOMY IS REMAIN
GENERALLY STRONG AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER THAN HAD BEEN
ANTICIPATED. SO WE REPORTED IN
AUGUST THE SECOND QUARTER GROS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT GREW BY 2.1%.
WE DON'T HAVE FINAL NUMBERS YET
FURTHER QUARTER, BUT THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT IT WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THAT THE SNP
ANTICIPATES GROWTH OF US WHICH
IS 4% IN THE THIRD QUARTER.
WITH THAT SAID, IN THE LONGER
RUN, EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT
THERE WILL BE A SLOWING OF
GROWTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF
2024 AND GOING INTO 2025. THE
LONG-RANGE FORECAST WHICH WE
EMPHASIZED BEFORE IS SLOWING
LONG-TERM GROWTH, REMAINS.
DIGGING A LITTLE BIT JUST TO SE
MORE DETAIL ON WHAT'S HAPPENED
SINCE AUGUST, IN TERMS OF
EMPLOYMENT, THE ECONOMY IS
CONTINUING TO ADD JOBS AT A
STEADY PACE. WE HAD SEEN UNTIL
LAST MONTH , UNTIL SEPTEMBER, A
SLOWING OF JOB GROWTH BUT THER
WAS SURPRISINGLY STRONG RESULTS
FOR SEPTEMBER. WE WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE WHETHER THAT WAS A
ANOMALY OR WHETHER THAT'S
CONTINUED RENEWED STRENGTH.
UNEMPLOYMENT HAS REMAINED
RELATIVELY CONSTANT AT A
RELATIVELY LOW , ROUGHLY 3.6%
NOW FOR ALMOST 2 YEARS. SO ON
THE EMPLOYMENT FRONT, WE
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG. ON THE
INFLATION SIDE, HAD NOTED LAST
TIME IN AUGUST THAT INFLATION
WAS ON A CLEAR DOWNWARD TREND
TOOK A LOOK AT THE BLUE LINE OF
TO THE RIGHT THERE, THAT'S
NATIONAL LEVEL CPI , CONSUMER
PRICE INDEX. THE MOST COMMON
MEASURE OF INFLATION. I SEE IT
WAS ON A STEADY DOWNWARD TREND.
LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS, BUMPED
BACK A LITTLE BIT AND HOLDING A
ABOUT 3.7%. SO MUCH LOWER .
NEARLY 10% AT THE PEAK AND 9%
OF THE NATIONAL LEVEL. BUT THE
RATE OF SLOWING HAS DECLINED A
LEAST TEMPORARILY. IN
PARTICULAR, GAS PRICES, FUEL
PRICES HAVE BEEN A KEY DRIVER
FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER AS
WE'LL DISCUSS IN A MINUTE,
PROBABLY NOT COMING DOWN AGAIN
IN THE NEAR TERM. THE OTHER
MEASURE OF INFLATION THAT WE PU
ON THE GRAPH TO EMPHASIZE TO YO
IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S
PRESERVER FOR PREFERRED MEASURE
OF INFLATION WHICH IS THE
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITUR
INDEX OR PCE INDEX. IMPLORE
THERE, THE CORE PCE INDEX WHICH
REMOVES FOOD AND ENERGY SO IT'
REALLY THE CORE PRICES AND
GENERALLY SEEN AS A GOOD MEASUR
OF LONG-RUN INFLATION. THAT'S
WHAT THEY'VE BEEN TARGETING AND
TRYING TO BRING DOWN, IDEALLY
CLOSER TO 2% . WHAT YOU CAN SEE
THERE, IT'S HARD TO SEE THE
TREND BUT THE PCE INDEX HAS BEE
ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS WELL
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2022.
LIFT UP A LITTLE BIT LAST
QUARTER . ACTUALLY LAST ONE BUT
IT'S CONTINUING A DOWNWARD
TREND. SO GOOD NEWS ON THE
INFLATION FRONT AS WELL. THE
ECONOMY HAS BEEN STRONG BUT
SINCE AUGUST, A NUMBER OF NEW
RISKS HAVE ALSO EMERGED. AND AR
WORTH NOTING. ONE IS THE AUTO
WORKERS STRIKE THAT SOMETHING
ENTERING MULTIPLE WEEKS
ACTUALLY. WHETHER THERE ARE
BROAD IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY
WILL DEPEND ON THE SCOPE AND
DURATION. A SCOPE HAS BEEN
EXPANDING AS UAW IS TRYING TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON COMPANIE
BUT THE REAL IMPACTS HAVE BEEN
LOCALIZED TO THE AREAS WHERE
CARS ARE PRODUCED. SO NOT BEEN
BIG OVERALL ECONOMIC IMPACT. IF
IT CONTINUES, IT WILL SPREAD
ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE A BIG
IMPACT IN OUR REGION ANALYST IS
PROLONGED AND REALLY WIDESPREAD
ANOTHER RISK THAT HAS EMERGED I
WAR AND MILITARY CONFLICT. SO
UKRAINE , RUSSIA SWORN UKRAINE
HAS BEEN AN ONGOING RISK TO THE
ECONOMY. IN TERMS OF DRIVING U
ENERGY PRICES. CONFLICT BETWEE
ISRAEL AND PALESTINE IS ONLY
GOING TO INCREASE THOSE RISKS
SIGNIFICANTLY. SO AGAIN, OIL
PRICES HAVE PEAKED OVER THE
SUMMER AND STARTED TO COME BACK
DOWN AND LIKELIHOOD THAT THEY
WILL BE PUSHED BACK UP HERE
FUEL PRICES, GAS PRICES HAVE TW
EFFECTS. ONE IS AN IMMEDIATE
AFFECT CONSUMERS IF THEY END UP
SPENDING MORE OF THEIR INCOME O
FUEL VERY DIRECTLY AND HAVE LES
MONEY TO SPEND ELSEWHERE. BUT
THEN THERE'S ALSO A MORE
INSIDIOUS AND GENERALIZED EFFEC
WHICH IS IT INCREASES THE COST
OF TRANSPORTATION WHICH MEANS
THE COST OF GOODS ACROSS THE
ECONOMY FEELS PRESSURE AS WELL.
SO AGAIN THEY DURATION AND
EXTENT OF THAT WILL DETERMINE
ITS IMPACT. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
AND WHAT I'VE DESCRIBED IS
CONGRESSIONAL CHAOS. ORIGINALL
THIS WAS LABELED JUST A
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IN THE
SECOND TITLE REALLY EXPLAINS
WHERE WE ARE. AT THIS STAGE
THERE IS A RISK OF A GOVERNMENT
SHUTDOWN THERE. THE CONTINUING
RESOLUTION EXPIRES IN A FEW
WEEKS AND GIVEN WHERE THINGS
STAND, UNCLEAR WHAT THE PATH
FORWARD WILL BE. SO THAT'S
CERTAINLY A RISK. AND PROBABLY
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK IN
TERMS OF LONG-RUN ISSUES IS
INCREASING INTEREST RATES. SO
THE CHART ON THE RIGHT IS A
CHART OF MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE
AND WHAT YOU SEE THERE IS EVEN
THOUGH INFLATION HAS BEEN
DECLINING OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS , LONG-TERM INTEREST
RATES HAVE NOT . SO THERE'S A
REAL SENSE THAT THERE IS
CONCERN ABOUT WHERE PRICES ARE
GOING FOR THE LONG RUN AND WHA
ECONOMIC RISKS ARE FOR THE LONG
RUN. WILL THOSE WOULD EXPLAIN
THE LONGER-TERM , HIGHER
INTEREST RATE. BUT IF INTEREST
RATES ARE GOING TO BE HIGH FOR
THE LONG RUN, THAT WILL HAVE A
DAMPENING EFFECT ON THE ECONOMY
. AS DESCRIBED HERE, ANYTHING
THAT REQUIRES BORROWING MONEY
TO PURCHASE, AND I COULD BE
CONSUMERS BUYING CARS OR BUYING
HOUSES, IT COULD BE COMPANIES
INVESTING IN NEW FACTORIES OR
EVEN IN I.T. UPGRADES AND THE
LIKE. ALTHOUGH SINKS BECOME MOR
EXPENSIVE. SO AGAIN, THIS
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES BEING
HIGHER IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
OVERALL FORECAST OF LONG-TERM
GROWTH. SO BEYOND THE NEXT
COUPLE OF YEARS IS GOING TO BE
LOOKING LIKE THAT. LOCALLY,
AGAIN NO SPECIFIC CONCERNS ABOU
THE LOCAL ECONOMY, BUT WE HAVE
RECEIVED DATA THAT CONFIRMS MUC
OF THE CONCERNS WE HAD EXPRESSE
BEFORE AND THAT ARE ALREADY
BAKED INTO THE FORECAST. ONE
THING IS ON THE EMPLOYMENT
FRONT, WE GOT REVISED DATA FRO
EMPLOYMENT SECURITIES . REVISED
DATA BACK TO THE BEGINNING OF
THE YEAR FOR THE GREEN DOTTED
LINE IN THE UPPER GRAPH SHOWS
YOU WHAT HAD BEEN THERE MEASUR
OF EMPLOYMENT BUT YOU CAN SEE I
GENERAL, WE ARE HOVERING AT
ABOUT -- JUST BELOW 1.8 MILLIO
JOBS FOR THE REGION. THE
EMPLOYMENT SECURITIES, THEY LE
SURVEY INFORMATION FROM FIRMS
AND ON A QUARTERLY BASIS, THE
BENCHMARK THAT TO THE ACTUAL
DATA THEY ARE SEEING FROM
PAYROLLS. SO THIS WAS A
CORRECTION WITH THOSE ACTUAL
DATA. WHAT YOU SEE IS INSTEAD
OF HAVING CREATED 40,000 JOBS
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR
LOCAL ECONOMY 42,000, THE LOCA
ECONOMY HAS 24,000. AND THIS I
SHOWN IN THE SECOND BAR CHART
BELOW, WE ARE SEEING SIGNIFICAN
REDUCTIONS IN EMPLOYMENT IN THE
INFORMATION SECTOR AND
PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS
SERVICES WHICH IS THE PLACE
WHERE A LOT OF TECH COMPANIES
END UP BEING CHARACTERIZED AS
WELL. SO WE HAD SEEN THE
SLOWDOWN IN THE TECH SECTOR. WE
HAVE SEEN SOME DROP IN
EMPLOYMENT BUT THIS REALLY
EMPHASIZES THAT THAT'S A VERY
REAL THING IN THE LOCAL ECONOMY
IT'S HAPPENING. IN ADDITION, YO
SEE CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT,
IT'S ANOTHER AREA THAT WE
IDENTIFIED AS LEADING TO SLOWE
GROWTH AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVIT
WILL COOL. WE HAVE ADDITIONAL
DATA ON THAT AS WELL. THAT ALL
SAID, AND WE WILL GET THERE
WHEN WE TALK ABOUT REVENUES COM
EVEN THOUGH EMPLOYMENT IS WORSE
THAN WE THOUGHT AND WE ARE
GOING TO SHOW YOU THE
CONSTRUCTION REMAINS AN ISSUE
OF CONCERN. REVENUES HAVE KEPT
UP WITH OUR FORECAST IN GENERAL
SO THESE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS
CONFIRM OUR CONCERNS THAT THEY
ARE NOT UNTO THEMSELVES
DELIVERING BAD NEWS OR THAT TH
FORECAST NEEDS A SIGNIFICANT
REVISION. I BELIEVE THERE'S A
HANDOUT. SO HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR
QUESTIONS.
>> GO AHEAD, DIRECTOR DINGLEY.
>> GOOD MORNING, DIRECTOR NOBLE
NT. THANKS FOR THIS. I HAVE A
QUESTION ON THE SLIDE ABOUT THE
JOB CREATION BY SECTOR AND I SE
ON YOUR THIRD BULLET THAT YOU'R
TALKING ABOUT HOW THE TECHNOLOG
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR, THE
EMPLOYMENT THERE HAS BEEN MORE
IMPACTED. ARE THOSE THE TWO
PRIMARY AREAS WHERE THIS
DOWNWARD REVISION AFFECTED FROM
THE STATE OR WAS IT ACROSS THE
BOARD? WHAT OF THOSE FACTORS
CHANGED FROM THE AUGUST
FORECAST THAT WE SAW?
>> I HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK TO
CONFIRM BUT THE BIGGEST DROPS
AND BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE IN
THE RED, IF YOU WILL. SO I THIN
THERE'S SOME ADDITIONAL
EMPLOYMENT IN SOME OF THE OTHER
SECTORS. I NEED TO GO BACK AND
LOOK HARDER, BUT THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS WERE IN TERMS OF CHANGE
ON THAT SIDE. YES.
>> THANK YOU.
>> MOVING ON, WE ALSO WANT TO
TALK ABOUT ADDITIONAL DATA I
DESCRIBED. SO CONSTRUCTION AND
PERMITTING. WE COLLECT DATA
FROM STC I AND THE TRANSMITTED
TO US. WE , IF YOU LOOK
HISTORICALLY BACK TO 2019, WOR
ON GETTING THIS. SORRY. I HAVE
A DELAY HERE THAT I NEED TO WOR
THROUGH. ONE SET. I APOLOGIZE
SEAM YOU'VE GOT FANCY SLIDES.
I TRIED TO BE TOO FANCY. THERE
YOU GO. THAT'S 2019 AND
COMPARE IMMEDIATELY TO 2022. 21
P PANDEMIC, HIGH LEVEL OF
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY. 2022, S
LAST YEAR, STARTING TO SEE A
SLOWDOWN . NOT NECESSARILY IN
EVERY MONTH BUT IN AGGREGATE .
KNOW WHAT NOTABLY LESS ACTIVITY
THESE ARE VALUES OF CONSTRUCTIO
PERMITS AS ASSIGNED BY STC I.
ADDING 2023, SO CURRENT YEAR,
AND YOU WILL SEE THAT FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE YEAR,
GENERALLY KEEPING UP . SO
JANUARY, FEBRUARY MARCH , BUT
STARTING IN APRIL, MAY, JUNE ,
JULY AND AUGUST, WE START TO
FALL BELOW. AS OF NOW, WE ARE
16% BELOW LAST YEAR . YOU WILL
NOTE THAT IN SEPTEMBER, THERE
WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG RESULTS
FOR 2023. WE KNOW THERE WAS ONE
VERY LARGE PROJECT, $200 MILLIO
SWEDISH HOSPITAL PROJECT HAD
ITS PERMITS ISSUED. IF YOU SET
THAT ASIDE AND THAT WILL STILL
CONTINUE WITH REVENUE, IF YOU
THINK OF IT A SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT, IS AN INSTITUTIONAL
PROJECT SO NOT A PURELY
COMMERCIAL PROJECT. IT'S NOT AN
OFFICE-BASED OR INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION FACILITY. IF YOU TAK
THAT OUT THAN THE OVERALL VALUE
OF THE PERMITS IS DOWN 50% FROM
LAST YEAR. SO QUITE NOTABLY. AN
IF YOU LOOK AT LARGE PROJECTS ,
THOSE OF MORE THAN $10 MILLION
AND $10 MILLION IS A
MEDIUM-SIZED CONSTRUCTION
PROJECT AT THIS POINT. DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR BOTH
COMMERCIAL AND RESIDENTIAL
PROJECTS. SO WE REALLY ARE
SEEING A SLOWING IN CONSTRUCTIO
ACTIVITY. AGAIN, NOT A SURPRISE
CONSISTENT LARGELY WITH OUR
FORECAST. BUT IT IS EMERGING IN
THE DATA.
>> SORRY, BEFORE WE MOVE ON TO
RENT, IF I CAN INTERRUPT YOU
HERE, I THINK LAST TIME ONE OF
THE REQUESTS I HAD WAS TO
COMPARE ISSUED PERMITS VERSUS
REQUESTED PERMITS AND I THINK
YOU FOLLOWED UP WITH SOME
INFORMATION ABOUT THAT. IS A
POSSIBLE FOR US TO SEE THE ISSU
, THE ISSUE TO VERSUS THE
REQUESTED IN THE SAME FORMAT
JUST TO SEE IF THERE ARE
SIMILAR DEMAND ACROSS THE YEAR
BUT A SLOWDOWN IN ISSUANCE. I'M
TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO
EXPEDITE BOTH THE CONSTRUCTION
THAT WE NEED SO DESPERATELY, BU
ALSO THAT YIELDS REVENUE AND
THAT YIELDS GREATER ECONOMIC
ACTIVITY AND JOBS FROM YOUR
PREVIOUS SLIDE. IS THAT POSSIBL
TO SEE? SAME I DON'T HAVE IT
AVAILABLE AS WE SPEAK BUT WE DO
HAVE ALL THE DATA. SO WE CAN
AGAIN PROVIDE YOU THAT
COMPARISON. ONE OF THE THINGS W
STRUGGLE WITH AND WE CAN SPEAK
TO THIS MORE, IS THE
RELATIONSHIP OF TIME BETWEEN
PERMITS REQUESTED AND PERMITS
ISSUED. YOU MIGHT THINK THAT A
PERMIT REQUESTED BECOMES A
PERMIT ISSUED SIX MONTHS OR 12
MONTHS LATER. BUT THE
RELATIONSHIP IS IN THAT CLEAN.
WHAT HAPPENS IS FOLKS WEST
PERMITS AND THEN THEY SORT OF
SIT ON THEM , LOOKING FOR
FINANCING AND LOOKING FOR
OPTIMAL TIME TO DEPLOY. WHICH
IS WHY WE FOCUS ON ISSUED
PERMITS. BUT YOU ARE RIGHT THA
IT'S AN IMPORTANT PIECE OF THIS
OVERALL PUZZLE AS WELL. AND
SEEING WHAT THE TREND IS THERE
IS ALSO USEFUL FOR WHAT OF THE
THINGS WE PAY ATTENTION TO.
THAT WE CAN GET YOU THAT AND
PROVIDE COMMENTARY AS WELL TO
GIVE YOU A SENSE OF WHAT WE ARE
LOOKING FOR THERE AND WHAT WE
ARE SEEING. I THINK THAT WOULD
BE HELPFUL SO THANK YOU FOR THA
QUESTION.
>> THANK YOU, VERY MUCH. SEE
MET LOCAL INFLATION JUST TO
COMMENT, IS LARGELY MATCHING
FORECAST. IT HAS COME DOWN AND
A BIG REASON FOR THAT, WE
PREVIEWED THIS LAST TIME. RENTS
ARE STABILIZING. SO THE CHART O
THE RIGHT ON THE LOWER SIDE IS
MONTHLY RENT. THAT'S DATA FROM
A SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE REBUY. I
GIVES YOU A SENSE THAT RENTS HA
BEEN ESCALATING DRAMATICALLY AN
NOW FOR A BETTER PART OF A
COUPLE OF YEARS, THEY'VE BEEN
RELATIVELY STABLE. THERE IS
STILL AN UPWARD TREND TO BE
CLEAR, BUT NOT A DRAMATIC SPIKE
AND IT'S SUCH A BIG -- HOUSING
IS SUCH A BIG MEASURE SO IT'S
AN IMPORTANT PIECE TO
UNDERSTAND. AGAIN, ON THE LOCA
SIDE -- GO AHEAD.
>> I DIDN'T MEAN TO INTERRUPT
YOU.
>> ON THE LOCAL SIDE, NOTHING ,
THESE MIGHT LOOK DIRE BUT THES
DATA ARE MORE THAN ANYTHING
CONFIRMING AND AFFIRMING THE
FORECAST WE HAVE MADE. THESE AR
THE THINGS WE IDENTIFIED AS
DRIVERS AND WHY THE LOCAL
ECONOMY WAS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN. AND WEIRS SEEING THEM PLA
OUT. THAT'S MY SUMMARY. IF
THERE'S A QUESTION, HAPPY TO
TAKE IT. SEE MET I WILL START
RAISING MY HAND SO I DON'T
INTERRUPT YOU IN THE FUTURE. TH
QUESTION I HAD HERE WAS ABOUT
THE TYPE OF UNIT THAT THIS IS
MEASURING. YESTERDAY WE SAW SOM
SIMILAR DATA FROM THE HOUSING
DEVELOPMENT CONSORTIUM WHO
PROVIDED AN OVERVIEW OF SOME OF
THE TRENDS THEY WERE SEEING.
AND I BELIEVE THAT THEY WERE
LOOKING AT THE MONTHLY RATE FO
STUDIO APARTMENTS . DO YOU KNOW
IF THIS IS MEASURING STUDIOS
HERE?
>> THIS IS MEASURING IN
AGGREGATE ACROSS . SO IT'S
PROBABLY NOT THE BEST MEASURE I
THAT SENSE. YOU CAN PICK
INDIVIDUAL UNIT SIZES AND GET
DIFFERENT VARIATIONS. THIS IS
JUST MEANT TO CAPTURE THE
GENERAL TREND OF APARTMENT
RENTS.
>> OKAY. THANKS FOR THAT INFO.
MISSPOKE. IT WAS THE FOLKS FRO
DOWNTOWN EMERGENCY SERVICES
CENTER AND SEI YOU 99 THAT
COMPILED THE DATA LOOKING AT
WAGE ENHANCEMENTS VERSUS THE
COST OF LIVING IN THE AREA. SO
THAT'S WHERE IT WAS TELLING TO
SEE JUST OVER $2000 WITH THE
AVERAGE COST OF A STUDIO
APARTMENT, LET ALONE WHAT YOU
WOULD NEED FOR A FAMILY. OF
INTEREST, PROBABLY TO ALL THE
MEMBERS HERE , THEY ALSO
CALCULATED THAT CANNOT BE RENT
BURDENED AND I HAVE TO PAY MORE
THAN 30% OF YOUR INCOME ON RENT
YOU WOULD NEED TO EARN MORE THA
$81,600 IN THE EQUIVALENT FOR
YEARLY SALARY. SO THAT'S PRETTY
TELLING WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT HO
EXPENSIVE IT IS TO LIVE IN A
CITY AND TO SEE THESE NUMBERS .
IT'S PRETTY SHOCKING.
>> INDEED. JUST TO EMPHASIZE
THE POINT MADE HERE AS WELL IS
THAT RENT IS SUCH A BIG PART OF
CPI AND WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND
WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH RENT AND
GLOBAL INFLATION. SUCH A KEY
DRIVER. AGAIN, LOCAL AND
NATIONAL ECONOMY CONTINUING
STRONG. THE RISKS WE IDENTIFY
PLAYING OUT, BUT NO MAJOR
DEVELOPMENTS. SHIFTING ONTO TH
FORECAST. I WILL START FROM THE
NATIONAL LEVEL AND GIVE YOU A
SENSE OF HOW THE STANDARD
FORECAST HAS CHANGED SINCE
AUGUST. BUT THE BASIC MESSAGE
IS ON THE FORECAST HAS
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THINGS WERE
BETTER THAN THEY HAD EXPECTED
FOR THE SECOND QUARTER AND
THIRD QUARTER AND THEY'RE NOW
EXPECTING SIMILAR FOR THE
FOURTH. SO LOOKING AT REAL GDP
SO THE NATIONAL OUTPUT AS A
WHOLE, THAT THE AUGUST FORECAST
INTENTIONALLY IN ORANGE. AND
LAYING ON TOP IS THE OCTOBER
FORECAST. WHAT YOU CAN SEE IS
AGAIN FOR OVERALL OUTPUT OF TH
U.S. ECONOMY, STRONGER
SECOND-QUARTER THAN HAD BEEN
PROJECTED. SO THAT'S THE SOLI
LINE EXTENDING OVER THE DOTTED
ORANGE LINE. THERE FORECAST
WHICH IS A DOTTED RED LINE GOIN
FORWARD, THEY ARE EXPECTING
STRONGER GDP GROWTH THAN THEY
HAD LAST AUGUST IN THE
NEAR-TERM. FOURTH-QUARTER AND
FIRST-QUARTER 2024 AND ALSO INT
THE SECOND QUARTER. BUT IN THE
LONGER RUN BY THE MIDDLE OF
2024, HEADING BACK TOWARDS THE
SLOWER GROWTH IN THE ANTICIPATE
BEFORE. AND THE BASIC MESSAGE O
THE REASON WHY IS THE SAME.
THAT'S THAT HIGHER INTEREST
RATES , THAT THEY WILL BIND ON
THE ECONOMY AND THE FED IS
ESSENTIALLY GOING TO SAY THAT
GROWTH WILL SLOW. THE REASON ,
THE EXPECTATION THAT THE FEDS
MAY KEEP INTEREST RATES HIGHER
FOR LONGER GIVEN THAT INFLATION
IS HOLDING ONTO THE HIGHER
LEVELS AND AGAIN, THAT
REINFORCES THE IDEA OF SLOWER
GROWTH BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEX
YEAR. THIS NEXT CHART SHOWS
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND REALLY
TRYING TO EMPHASIZE THE AUGUST
FORECAST IN OCTOBER FORECAST,
THAT THEY ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED
THAT AGAIN, OVER THE LONGER
RUN, EXPECTATION IS THAT HIGHER
INTEREST RATES WILL HAVE A
STRONG EFFECT IN TERMS OF
SLOWING CONSUMER DEMAND FOR
THINGS LIKE CARS AND HOUSES, AN
ALSO ON THE COMMERCIAL SIDE, I
WILL INCREASE THE COST OF
INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND THE
LIKE AND THAT WILL ALSO HAVE TH
EFFECT OF SLOWING THE ECONOMY.
SO AGAIN, ON THE NATIONAL SIDE,
NOT REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST
EXCEPT TO ACKNOWLEDGE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER RESULTS FOR THIS YEAR
AND AN EXPECTATION OF STRONGER
RESULTS FOR EARLY 2024. ON THE
LOCAL LEVEL, I WILL TURN THIS
OVER . SORT OF A SIMILAR STORY
BUT GO AHEAD.
>> THANKS. GOOD MORNING,
FORECAST COUNCIL MEMBERS. MY
NAME IS JAN FROM THE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOCUSING FIRST ON THE
REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT, THE CHART
SHOWS WHAT WE BELIEVED WAS THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE EMPLOYMENT AN
OUR FORECAST BACK IN AUGUST.
THAT'S THE ORANGE LINE. THE RED
LINE, THE SOLID PART SHOWS THE
ACTUAL EMPLOYMENT. SHOWS THE
EFFECT OF THE DOWNWARD PROVISIO
IN THE EMPLOYMENT FEARS.
BEYOND THAT, THE DASHED PART,
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS OUR AUGUS
FORECAST CLOSELY. SO WE SEE
MORE OF AN IMPACT ON A LEVEL
RATHER THAN THE RATES TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE DOWNWARD
REVISION LOWERS OUR FORECAST FO
EMPLOYMENT DOSE CHANGING THE
APPOINTMENT FOR 2023, BUT GOING
TO FORWARD TOWARD 2024, 2025 AN
BEYOND, WE SEE SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY FOR THE EMPLOYMENT
RATE. SO THERE'S NO REAL
DOWNWARD SHIFT GOING FROM THE
ORANGE LINE TO THE RED LINE.
NOT CHANGE IN THE SLOPE OF THOS
TWO LINES. RELATIVELY SPEAKING
LOOKING AT THE REGIONAL INCOM
FORECAST , THERE HAS BEEN A
REVISION IN THE PERSONAL INCOM
FOR WASHINGTON STATE , GOING
BACK TO 2013. 1% REVISIONS ,
UP OR DOWN DEPENDING ON WHICH
YEAR WE ARE LOOKING AT. SO WE
INCLUDED THOSE UPDATED
ESTIMATES FOR THE STATE INCOME
TO CREATE OUR OWN ESTIMATES
FOR REGIONAL INCOME . BECAUSE
REGIONAL INCOME FOR 2022 WILL
NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL LATER I
NOVEMBER. THE CON LOCATES THE
FORECAST , OUR FORECAST BECAUSE
WE'RE NOT COMPLETELY SURE WHERE
WE ARE . BUT THE STATE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING SLIGHTL
LESS OF A GROWTH IN 2022, BUT
MAYBE STRONGER GROWTH IN 2023
IN EMPLOYMENT. AND THEN GOING
FORWARD BEYOND 2023, WE SEE A
SIMILAR TRAJECTORY, MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WE BRIEFLY
SAW BUT IT'S MARGINALLY SLOWER.
>> AGAIN, ON THE REGIONAL LEVEL
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TERM
OF LONG-TERM FORECAST,
ACKNOWLEDGING THE DATA HAS
SHIFTED SOME. SO NONDRAMATIC
NEWS THERE EITHER. YOU WANT TO
TALK A BIT ABOUT THE BASELINE
VERSUS THE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST
AND THE DIFFERENCES THAT ARE
HIGHLIGHTED THERE? SNP IS
ASSIGNING A 30% PROBABILITY TO
THEIR PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO AND
THAT'S TWO THINGS THAT ARE
DRIVING THE BAD NEWS THERE. WHE
WOULD BE DOSE THE TIME THEY
WROTE US WAS ESCALATION OF THE
WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
THE CONFLICT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND
PALESTINE HAS ADDED TO THAT IN
TERMS OF POTENTIAL RISKS. BUT
WHAT HAPPENS THERE IS HIGHER
INFLATION AS PRICES ESCALATE
AND OTHER COMMON COMMODITIES
ALSO ESCALATE. SO NOT UNLIKE
SOME OF THE PRICE ESCALATION WE
SAW DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE PANDEMIC. THAT ALSO PUTS
PRESSURE PUTS PRESSURE ON THE
BANKING SECTORS AS WELL. HIGHER
INTEREST RATES FURTHER SLOW THE
ECONOMY IN THIS EXPECTATION IS
ULTIMATELY A RECESSION. YOU CAN
SEE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH DROPS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY MISS SCENARIO.
SO WE'LL TALK MORE ABOUT A
RECOMMENDATION BETWEEN THE TWO
OF THEM BUT JUST WANT TO GIVE
YOU A SENSE THAT THAT BASIC
SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN
TERMS OF WHAT COULD GO WRONG, I
YOU WILL. IF YOU CARRY THAT
FORWARD TO THE REGIONAL LEVEL,
YOU GET A COMPARABLE STORY. SO
WE WOULD AGAIN , REGIONAL
EMPLOYMENT COULD POTENTIALLY
DROP OFF AS THE NATIONAL
ECONOMY WERE TO COOL AND
INFLATION WOULD PICK UP. SO
AGAIN, THAT'S CONSISTENT . THES
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE KNOW AN
WERE PORTRAYED PREVIOUSLY. THE
QUESTION OF WHICH IS APPROPRIAT
AS ANOTHER KEY ISSUE. THIS
NEXT SLIDE HAS INFORMATION ON
THAT FRONT. WE COMPILE THIS
INFORMATION.
>> GOOD MORNING, JOHN THOMPSON
WITH THE OFFICE OF REVENUE
FORECAST. I WANT TO GO TO THE
SLIDE HERE WHICH IS THE
VISUALIZATION OF THE WALL STREE
JOURNAL FORECASTING SURVEY, TH
MOST RECENT ONE. THE WALL
STREET JOURNAL SURVEYS A
NATIONAL SURVEY ON MULTIPLE
ACADEMIC FORECASTERS AS LONG AS
WITH PRIVATE FORECASTERS ON HO
YOUR EAR WILL END UP. WE
MIGHT'VE SEEN THE SLIDING
PREVIOUS PRESENTATION. THIS IS
THE MOST RECENT ONE. WE HAVE
THE SMB GLOBAL WHICH IS OUR
PRIMARY INDICATOR FORECASTER
AND READ ALONG WITH MOODY
ANALYTICS WHICH IS ALSO
SUPPLEMENTAL IN CERTAIN AREAS
TOO, ALONG WITH THE WALL STREET
JOURNAL AVERAGE BEING IN BLUE .
WE CAN SEE AT A QUICK GLANCE
THAT BOTH SNP GLOBAL AND MOODY
ANALYTICS ARE CLOSE TO THE
AVERAGE. ULTIMATELY WE CAN SEE
THE FORECASTERS AS 2023 YEAR
AND GETS CLOSER HAVE FELT
DIFFERENT THAN BEFORE ABOUT A
LOT OF THINGS LIKE INFLATION,
UNEMPLOYMENT. ALONGSIDE THAT ,
YOU SEE THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
RIGHT NOW PEOPLE ARE VERY
CLOSELY CLEAR THAT THEY ARE NO
GOING TO CHANGE THE DIRECTION O
ECONOMIC POLICY ANYTIME SOON.
OVERALL WE CAN SEE THAT THE SMB
GLOBAL HAS STRONG ECONOMIC
FORECASTER FOR OUR REGIONAL
MODELS AND OTHER THINGS TOO.
BACK TO YOU, BEN.
>> EMPHASIZING YOUR POINT THAT
SNP IS WELL WITHIN THE
MAINSTREAM OF THE BASELINE. SO
GIVING US CONFIDENCE THAT THEI
BASELINE IS AND SOMEHOW
PARTICULARLY ROSY NOR
NECESSARILY PARTICULARLY
PESSIMISTIC VIEW. . BEFORE WE
MOVE ON, I WANT TO PRESENT A
RECOMMENDATION REGARDING THAT.
WE DON'T WANT IMPACT ON
REVENUES TO INFLUENCE HER
DECISION ABOUT THIS BUT WE THIN
THIS SHOULD BE PURE CHOICE. TH
THING TO NOTE HERE IS THAT THE
BASELINE FORECAST IS ITSELF NOT
PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE AS WE
HAVE SHOWN YOU. THE EXPECTATION
HEARS FOR MODERATE GROWTH AT
THE REMAINDER OF THIS YEAR AND
FIRST PART OF 2024. SO THE
BASELINE IS NOT A PARTICULARLY
ROSY FORECAST. OUR REGIONAL
PROJECTION IS MATCHING THE
NATIONAL ONE, SORE REGIONAL
FORECAST ISN'T PARTICULARLY
OPTIMISTIC AS WELL OR
PARTICULARLY ROBUST. OUR
EXPECTATION IS FOR RELATIVELY
SLOW GROWTH. AGAIN, THE POINT
MADE EARLIER AND THAT'S WHY I
MADE IT . ALTHOUGH WE'VE SEEN
SOME SIGNIFICANT REVISIONS IN
DATA AND NO UNDERSTANDING
REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT IS LOWER
THAN WE THOUGHT, IN TERMS OF
REVENUES, WE'VE BEEN LARGELY
MEETING OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SO IT'S NOT LIKE THAT
UNDERSTANDING OF UNEMPLOYMENT
CORRELATES TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN REVENUE. SO WE FEEL
THAT WE'VE MANAGED TO FACTOR
THAT IN WELL ENOUGH. THEN WE'VE
IDENTIFIED A NUMBER OF EMERGING
RISKS, BUT NONE OF THEM
INDIVIDUALLY ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
REGIONALLY. PARTICULARLY NOT
NEAR-TERM. I MIGHT MAKE THIS
POINT WITH A COUNTEREXAMPLE. W
WERE FORECASTING REVENUES IN
GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN WHICH I
THE HEART OF OUR COUNTRY IF YOU
WILL, I MIGHT BE BEING TOWARDS
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST BECAUSE TH
NATIONAL FORECAST PROBABLY
DOESN'T CAPTURE THE RISKS THAT
ARE PERTINENT TO THAT KIND OF
LOCAL ECONOMY. BUT FOR US, THE
RISKS ARE NOT SPECIFIC TO
SEATTLE AND AGAIN, EVEN THE
BASELINE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE. SO ON THAT BASIS
WE ARE RECOMMENDING USE OF THE
BASELINE SCENARIO AND MOST OF
THE REVENUE FORECASTS NUMBERS
WILL SHOW YOU FROM THIS POINT
ON, CORRESPOND TO THAT BASELINE
BUT WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WHAT THE
POTENTIAL RISK IS AND WHAT IT
WOULD LOOK LIKE UNDER OUR
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO FOR THE
REGIONAL ECONOMY. YOU DON'T SE
ANY QUESTIONS AND WITH THAT I'L
MOVE ON TO THE TABLE WITH ALL
THE NUMBERS AND GET INTO THIS I
DETAIL. WITH THAT, ALL RIGHT.
ON THE GENERAL FUND SIDE, THESE
ARE THE FORECAST REVISIONS.
PRETTY DENSE TABLES. LET ME
HIGHLIGHT THE STRUCTURE HERE
AND GO ON TO DESCRIBING THE
DIFFERENCES. SO FIRST COLUMN OF
NUMBERS ARE THE 2022 ACTUALS.
REALLY PUT THEIR AS A REFERENCE
POINT . 2023 REVISED . SO THESE
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE NUMBER
THAT ARE UNDERLYING THE PROPOSE
BUDGET WHICH INCLUDES USE OF
SOME RESOURCES FOR 2023. AND
THEN OUR NEW FORECAST WHICH IS
THE OCTOBER FORECAST AND THE
FOLLOWING COLUMN IS THE
DIFFERENCE. I'LL COME BACK AND
WALK TO THOSE DIFFERENCES. THIS
INSTRUCTOR FOR 2024. SO THE
2024 PROPOSED IN OCTOBER
FORECAST AND THEN THOSE
DIFFERENCES. IN THE FINAL
COMMENT IS THE SUM OF THE TWO
DIFFERENCES WHICH IS THE FINAL
COLUMN DEFINES THE CHANGE IN
RESOURCES AVAILABLE FOR THE
BUDGET PROCESS THAT THE COUNCIL
IS ENGAGED IN WHICH INVOLVES
MAKING FINAL CHANGES TO THE
2023 BUDGET AND ADOPTING THE
2024 BUDGET. SO GOING BACK TO
THE LEFT AND MOVING DOWN , THE
DIFFERENCE OF OCTOBER VERSUS
REVISED FOR 2023. SMALL
DIFFERENCE . ONE MORE POINT. TH
ITEMS HIGHLIGHTED IN BLUE ARE
THOSE THAT ARE THE PRIMARY
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE FORECAST
OFFICE. THOSE NOT HIGHLIGHTED B
THE BUDGET OFFICE , DEPENDING O
THE NATURE OF THE QUESTIONS, I
MAY TURN TO THEM FOR SOME
ANSWERS. SO PROPERTY TAX IS
FORECAST A BOWL. $20,000 IS A
SMALL DIFFERENCE. RETAIL SALES
UP JUST OVER 3.5 MILLION. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONG
RESULTS WE HAVE SEEN RELATIVE
TO OUR FORECAST AND AGAIN,
REVISIONS FOR STRONG ACTIVITY
IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF THIS
YEAR. THIS IS AN OCCUPATION
TAX. SIMILAR STORY WITH A
DIFFERENT EFFECT. PUBLIC UTILIT
TAXES DOWN ALMOST 2 MILLION.
OFFSETTING FACTORS HERE. ONE I
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. AGAIN I
THE $2 MILLION RANGE FOR THE
SOLID WASTE UTILITY. BUT ON THE
OTHER SIDE, APPROXIMATELY 3.7
MILLION REFUND ON THE CITY
LIGHT SIDE. SO CITY LIGHT HAD
OVERPAID UTILITY TAXES IN THE
PAST. AND BEEN WORKING WITH FAS
TAX ACCOUNTING TEAM. THERE'S
REFUND THAT WILL BE PAID OUT
THIS YEAR. THAT LEADS TO A
NEGATIVE REVISION ON THAT SIDE.
MINOR CHANGES ELSEWHERE .
ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN THE
BOTTOM, LICENSES, PERMITS AND
INTEREST. APPROXIMATELY $1
MILLION IS THE REDUCTION IN
INTEREST EARNINGS DRIVEN BY
LOWER BALANCES RATHER THAN A
CHANGE IN INTEREST RATES. THEN
PAYROLL TAX IN THEIR FOR A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE . YOU MIGHT
WELL ASK , WHY IS THERE A NUMBE
FOR PAYROLL TAX IN THE GENERAL
FUND IN 2023, AS OF 2022,
PAYROLL WAS DIRECTED TOWARDS
ITS OWN FUN. THAT'S TRUE. WHAT'
HAPPENED HERE IS AT THREE 2021,
THE PAYROLL TAX REVENUES,
JUMPSTART PAYROLL TAX REVENUES
WERE DEPOSITED INTO THE GENERAL
FUND. WHAT WE ARE SEEING HERE
NOW AND WE WERE CONTINUING TO
GET SOME LATE PAYMENTS FOR THE
JUMPSTART PAYROLL TAX FROM 2021
SO IN 2023 REVISED, WE
EXPECTED ABOUT $2.3 MILLION AND
WE RECEIVED $2.3 MILLION IN
LATE JUMPSTART PAYROLL TAX
PAYMENTS FOR 2021. SO THREE
YEARS LATER, DON, A YEAR AND A
HALF LATER PEOPLE WERE STILL
MAKING THOSE PAYMENTS. THERE HA
BEEN A REFUND DETERMINED AND
EXPECTED NOT TO BE ISSUED BY TH
END OF THE YEAR . A REFUND IN
THE $3 MILLION RANGE. THAT
REFUND BEGAN SINCE 2021
JUMPSTART PAYROLL TAX ISSUED. S
THEREFORE RELATES TO THE GENERA
FUND. SO THAT'S WHAT THIS SWIN
AND THE FORECAST IS FROM 2.2
MILLION POSITIVE TO FORECASTS
NOW A $400,000 OF NET OUTFLOW
SO THAT'S A REVISION DUE TO A
REFUND. IF YOU ADD THAT ALL UP
, THE DIFFERENCE COLUMN, YOU GE
TO A NET OF $800,000 IN GENERAL
FUND RESOURCES FOR 2023 . FROM
2024, AGAIN INCREASES FOR
SALES AT SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT
AND BEYOND THAT, ONLY MINOR
CHANGES , A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
PARKING METER REVENUES. SLIGHT
INCREASE IMPORT FINES IS LISTED
THERE. BUT THAT'S A SIGNIFICAN
INCREASE IN RETAIL SALES LEADS
TO AN OVERALL INCREASE IN $9
MILLION IN GENERAL FUND
RESOURCES FOR 2024. THEN IN THE
FINAL COLUMN, 9.8 , ALMOST $10
MILLION OF NET ADDITIONAL
REVENUE FOR THE GENERAL FUND .
AGAIN, THE BULK OF THAT COMING
IN 2024. SO THAT'S A LOT AND I
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUESTION
OR TWO. HAPPY TO TAKE THEM ON.
>> GREAT, THANK YOU. GOOD
MORNING AND WELCOME , TOM
MIKESELL.
>> THINKS FOR THE PRESENTATION
BEN. THE GENERAL FUND FINANCIA
PLAN SUBMITTED WITH THE BUDGET
ON PAGE 497 INCLUDES THE
REVENUE NUMBER FOR 2023 OF
1.704 BILLION DOLLARS. SO
COULD YOU EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENC
BECAUSE IT'S IMPORTANT FOR US
TO UNDERSTAND HOW WE CAN
INTERPRET THESE NUMBERS IN THE
UPCOMING COUNCIL BUDGET
DELIBERATIONS.
>> I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT
DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE REVENUE
FORECAST AND FINANCIAL PLAN IS
ON THE REVENUE FORECAST IS THE
REVENUES. FINANCIAL PLAN IS THE
RESOURCES WHICH COULD REPRESEN
MORE THAN JUST THE IMMEDIATE
AND NEAR-TERM REVENUES EARNED.
THUS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
REVENUE AND RESOURCES IS
IMPORTANT. I'LL LEAVE DAVE TO
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL YOUR DAY
WERE JULIE , BUDGET OFFICE
QUESTIONS ESSENTIALLY.
>> I'LL TAKE THAT. DAVE WITH
THE CITY BUDGET OFFICE. THE
FINANCIAL PLAN YOU ARE REFERRIN
TO INCLUDES A NUMBER OF ITEMS
ARE NOT MANY, BUT SEVERAL ITEMS
THAT ARE IN LATE LEGISLATION.
SO FOR EXAMPLE, THE YEAR AND
SUPPLEMENTAL AS ITEMS IN IT
THAT COULD CHANGE THE REVENUES
THAT THE CITY RECEIVES. THESE
HAVE NOT BEEN VOTED ON YET .
THERE'S ALSO AN ADDITIONAL PIEC
OF STAND-ALONE LEGISLATION THAT
HAS REVENUE IMPLICATIONS AS
WELL. SO THE REVENUE FORECAST
THE TOTAL C1 .699 BILLION
DOESN'T INCLUDE THOSE ITEMS YET
. SO THE OPPORTUNITY THERE IS
THAT THE COUNCIL WILL VOTE ON
THOSE ITEMS AND THAT REVENUE
WOULD GET ADDED IN TERMS OF TH
ADOPTED BUDGET'S FINAL NUMBERS.
BY THE REVENUE FORECAST DOES NO
YET INCLUDE THOSE. WHERE IS THE
FINANCIAL PLAN PERHAPS BEING
SLIGHTLY MORE OF A POLICY
DOCUMENT INCLUDES THOSE
RESOURCES FOR USE.
>> THANKS. I DO HAVE A FOLLOW-U
QUESTION. IS THERE SOME OTHER
PLACE IN THE BUDGET DOCUMENT
WHERE A BALANCED BUDGET IS
DEMONSTRATED? I'M ONLY FAMILIA
WITH THE FINANCIAL PLAN. AND
FURTHER, THE 1.704 BILLION IN
THE FINANCIAL PLAN IS INCLUDED
AS A REVENUE LINE NOT AS A
RESOURCE LINE. ALSO, THERE ARE
TWO YEAR END PIECES OF
LEGISLATION. THERE'S A YEAR AN
SUPPLEMENTAL WHICH IS
APPROXIMATELY $5 MILLION IN
REVENUE AND THEN THERE'S THE
YEAR END GRANTS WHICH IS
APPROXIMATELY $8.8 MILLION WITH
ADDITIONAL REVENUE. SO IN TOTAL
THAT'S AROUND 14 OR SO MILLION
DOLLARS. JUST TRYING TO
UNDERSTAND HOW THESE NUMBERS AL
HANG TOGETHER IN TERMS OF THE
REVENUE FORECAST AND THE
BALANCED BUDGET.
>> I DON'T KNOW THE GRANTS TO B
HONEST. THAT TOTALLY WHAT'S
INCLUDED AND NOT INCLUDED. THE
$5 MILLION DIFFERENCE I THINK I
CAPTURED IN THE YEAR AND DID
NOT SUPPLEMENTAL. SO I THINK W
CAN MAYBE OFF-LINE AND WORK ON
THE NUMBERS TO EXPLAIN WHAT THE
DIFFERENCES ARE AND WHY. IF YO
HAVE A COMMENT ?
>> THE KEY IS TO UNDERSTAND HO
THIS NEW OCTOBER FORECAST
IMPACTS RESOURCES AND IT'S A
BIT UNCLEAR GIVEN THE NUMBERS W
HAVE.
>> I THINK, TOM, THAT'S A GREA
TIME FOR US TO EMPHASIZE THAT
THIS IS JUST ONE HALF OF THE
EQUATION. IS IS JUST THE
REVENUE SIDE. IT DOESN'T CAPTUR
ANYTHING ON THE EXPENDITURE
SIDE. SO WHAT DAVE WAS
MENTIONING IS THAT WE HAVE
PROPOSALS IN THE URINE
SUPPLEMENTAL AS WELL AS A
STANDALONE ORDINANCE THAT
INCLUDE REVENUE AND
EXPENDITURES. THIS IS NOT YET
BEEN VOTED ON FROM THE COUNCIL.
THAT'S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDE
IN THE REVENUE FORECAST, BUT
THEY ARE ASSUMED TO BE PASSED I
THE MAYOR'S PROPOSED BUDGET.
THAT'S WHERE YOU WOULD SEE THE
DIFFERENCES. IT'S A GREAT
REMINDER THAT THIS IS JUST ONE
PART OF THE OVERALL PICTURE AND
WE CAN WORK TOGETHER TO HELP YO
UNDERSTAND WHERE THOSE PIECES
CROSS.
>> THAT WOULD BE EXTREMELY
HELPFUL.
>> THANK YOU. BEFORE I GO TO
DEPUTY MAYOR WASHINGTON, OR
VICE CHAIR OF THIS COMMITTEE, I
WANTED TO SEE IF THERE WAS
ANYBODY IN THE ROOM, I THOUGHT
SAW THE BOX LIGHT UP FOR THE
ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST
TEAM. WE MET WE ARE GOOD.
>> THANK YOU. I APPRECIATE THA
AND THANKS FOR THE
BACK-AND-FORTH AND DIRECTOR
DINGLEY FOR FOLLOW-UP. DAVID.
THINK WE UNDERSTAND HOW THE
DIFFERENT REVENUE STREAMS COME
TOGETHER AND THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE EXPENDITURES AND
REVENUE STREAMS. LOVE TO SEE
MORE ABOUT WHERE THE
ASSUMPTIONS ARE BUILT IN TO TH
PROPOSED BUDGET VERSUS WHAT'S
THE ACTUAL STATUTE CURRENTLY.
AND REALLY DELINEATE THAT OUT A
LITTLE MORE AS TOM WAS SAYING.
BUT THANK YOU FOR SHARING THAT
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND VERY
TIMELY AS WELL TO HAVE THAT THI
WEEK. DEPUTY MAYOR WASHINGTON ,
OR VICE CHAIR OF THE COUNCIL,
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> GOOD MORNING, DIRECTOR
NOBLE. JUST ONE QUESTION. ARE
THE GENERAL FUND INCREASES ON
THE SLIDE MORE ONE-TIME IN
NATURE OR WILL WE SEE THIS
HIGHER LEVEL IN THE OUT YEARS ,
GIVEN THE SLOW DOWN YOUR
SHOWING? OVERALL. THAT'S A
REALLY GOOD QUESTION. THE KEY
DRIVERS OF THE INCREASE IN
REVENUE , YOU CAN SEE SOME OF
THAT BY LOOKING AT THE PATTERN
BETWEEN -- THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN 23 AND 24 SO THAT SOME
OF THEM REALLY READ AS ONE TIME
CHANGES. BUT THE BIG DRIVERS
IN 2024 RETAIL SALES AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT, BNO. THAT'S AN
INCREASE IN HER BASE REVENUES.
SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THAT TO
BE A ONE-TIME INCREASE. IN
NORMAL TERMS, WE ARE EXPECTING
RETAIL SALES TO CONTINUE TO GRO
INTO 2025 AND 2026 AND BEYOND.
SO THAT INCREMENT FOR 2024 IS
INTO THE BASE, AND THE NEXT
SLIDE HIGHLIGHTS OVERALL GROWT
OF THE GENERAL FUND.
>> THANK YOU.
>> GO AHEAD , TOM MIKESELL.
>> COULD I JUMP IN?
>> SORRY, YES. THE TILES HERE
ARE REALLY HARD TO SEE SO
PLEASE FEEL FREE TO JUMP IN.
LET'S GO TO ALY PENNUCCI.
>> I WANTED TO QUICKLY RETURN T
THE CONVERSATION BEFORE DEPUTY
MAYOR WASHINGTON ASKED HER
QUESTION . JUST REGARDING THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE NUMBER
AND WHAT IS IN THE PROPOSED
BUDGET , I THINK MOVING FORWARD
THERE HAS BEEN SOME
INCONSISTENCY ABOUT HOW AND WHE
THINGS THAT ARE INCLUDED IN
SUPPLEMENTAL BUDGET ORDINANCES
ARE INCORPORATED INTO FORECASTS
AND THE TIMING OF WHICH , THE
AUGUST FORECAST FOR EXAMPLE,
INCLUDED SOME BUT NOT ALL OF TH
NOT YET VOTED ON ASSUMPTIONS IN
THE MIDYEAR SUPPLEMENTAL BUDGET
. MOVING FORWARD, I THINK IT
WOULD BE GOOD AND I'M SAYING
THIS FOR THE PUBLIC TOO, FROM
TRANSPARENCY PERSPECTIVE. IF
THERE WAS MORE NARRATIVE
DESCRIBING SOME OF THESE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRANSMITTAL
OF BUDGET ORDINANCES,
SUPPLEMENTAL OR PROPOSED, SO
THERE'S A CLEAR DELINEATION OF
WHAT IS OR ISN'T ASSUMED IN
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS. ONE TO
BE REALLY TRIPLE CHECK BECAUSE
WE ARE GOING INTO BALANCING
DISCUSSIONS THIS WEEK THAT FROM
THE CITY BUDGET OFFICES
PERSPECTIVE, THIS 9.8 MILLION
SORT OF TWO YEAR DIFFERENCE IS
IN ADDITION, ON TOP OF THE 1.70
GENERAL FUND REVENUES YOU
BALANCED TOO.
>> IS NOT A DIRECT QUESTION FO
THE CITY BUDGET OFFICE? SEE MY
DIRECTOR DINGLEY OR DAVE, I'M
WONDERING IF YOU CAN CONFIRM
THAT THAT IS AT LEAST YOUR
INITIAL UNDERSTANDING THAT THI
9.8 IS ON TOP OF THE 1.704 .
OKAY, THANK YOU.
>> I WOULD JUST SAY I THINK THI
IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF WHERE THE
FORECAST COUNSEL IS EXTREMELY
HELPFUL. THANK YOU. VERY TIMELY
AS WE TRY TO DECIPHER ALL OF
THE COMPONENTS WITH EITHER
PROPOSED BUDGETS IN THE YEAR
END LIKE WE ARE CURRENTLY IN, O
MIDYEAR PROCESS WHERE THE
REVENUE FORECAST INFORMATION IS
ALSO TIMELY THERE. AND HAPPY TO
HAVE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO BRING
TOGETHER THE EXECUTIVE AND
LEGISLATIVE BRANCH WITH THE
INDEPENDENT OFFICE, SO WE CAN
HAVE THIS INFORMATION SUSSED
OUT. THANK YOU ALL FOR ENGAGING
IN THAT. WAS THERE ANOTHER
QUESTION OR HAND , TOM? PLEASE
GO AHEAD.
>> THIS MAY BE COVERED IN
DIRECTOR NOBLE'S NEXT SLIDE BU
TO DEPUTY MAYOR WASHINGTON'S
QUESTION ABOUT THE LONG-TERM
IMPACT OF THE REVENUE FORECAST
CAN YOU TELL HOW MUCH THE 2026
NUMBER IS HIGHER IN THE OCTOBE
FORECAST VERSUS THE AUGUST
FORECAST? I JUST IN GENERAL
DOLLAR TERMS?
>> SO LIKE , IT WOULD TAKE ME
SECOND TO PULL UP. I WOULD
DISRUPT THE PRESENTATION TO DO
SO, BUT I CAN COME BACK TO THE
SLIDE. LET ME MAKE A POINT ON
THIS GENERAL TOPIC WHICH IS
THIS ONE. WE'RE FOCUSING A LOT
ON 2023 AND 24 AND THE FORECAS
LARGELY HASN'T CHANGED FOR
YEARS BEYOND. BUT RELATIVE TO
1.7 BILLION . WHAT THIS CHART
DOES IS LOOKS AT THE GENERAL
FORECAST IN TOTAL , OUT FOR THE
FULL SIX YEARS OF THE FORECAST.
I ADDED ANOTHER MEASURE OF THE
GENERAL FUND WHICH IS THE
FORECAST WITHOUT GRANTS AND
TRANSFERS AND YOU CAN SEE THAT
IN 2023 AND 24, GRANTS AND
TRANSFERS ARE A BIG PART OF THE
TOTAL PIE AS WE ARE WORKING
THROUGH SOME OF THE JUMPSTART
P.E.T. REVENUE TRANSFERS.
TRANSFERS FOR 23 AND 24. IF YOU
TAKE THOSE OUT AND LOOK AT THE
ORANGE WHICH IS THE CORE
REVENUES OF THE GENERAL FUND,
YOU CAN SEE THESE ARE GROWTH
RATES FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR .
YOU CAN SEE THERE'S A DECLINE I
2023, BUT WHAT I WANT TO
EMPHASIZE IS THE GROWTH
AFTERWARD IS VERY MODEST. WE AR
LOOKING AT GROWTH OF GENERAL
FUND REVENUES OF TWO, 2 1/2, 3
FOR A WHILE. TALK ABOUT SLOW
GROWTH GOING FORWARD . THIS IS
WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN TERMS OF
GENERAL FUND RESOURCES. THIS IS
BELOW RATES OF INFLATION FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF YEARS AND WE
ARE ALREADY BEHIND INFLATION
RELATIVE TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS
SO THIS MESSAGE OF THE FORECAS
DOESN'T APPLY SLOW GROWTH THE
NEXT FEW YEARS AND THAT WILL BE
-- HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
RESOURCES AVAILABLE , AT LEAST
FROM EXISTING REVENUE STREAMS.
AND SPEAKING SOMEWHAT TO THE
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH OF THIS I
LONG-TERM , HOW MUCH IS ONE TIM
IN HOW MUCH IS LONGER-TERM
GROWTH. SEMEN DIRECTOR DINGLEY
DID I SEE A HAND OF YOURS?
>> DIRECTOR NOBLE COVERED THAT
THESE PERCENTAGE GROWTH AMOUNTS
THAT WE SEE HERE ARE MUCH LOWER
THAN PROJECTED INFLATION OVER
THOSE TIME PERIODS WHICH IS
OBVIOUSLY A REALLY IMPORTANT
PIECE TO THINK ABOUT ONLY THIN
ABOUT THE SPENDING SIDE OF THIS
EQUATION AND BUYING POWER FOR
THE CITY. SEAM FOR SURE, THANK
YOU.
>> TOM, LOOK LIKE YOU WANTED T
SAY SOMETHING? I'M READING
LINES OVER HERE. GREAT.
>> THANK YOU. SO UNDERSTOOD TH
GROWTH RATES ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THOUGH AS THE
RESULTS IMPROVE , AS NUMBERS
COME IN HIGHER THAN WHAT THE
NEAR-TERM FORECASTS ARE WHICH
BELIEVE IS WHAT THESE MOST
RECENT FORECASTS HAVE SHOWN US,
THEY DO APPEAR TO CARRY FORWARD
. SO EVEN AT A SLOWER GROWTH
RATE, IT'S ALMOST LIKE THE BAS
IN 2023 IS BEING ADJUSTED
UPWARD. SO I THINK IT WILL BE
REVEALING IF WE CAN SEE THE
ACTUAL REVISED FORECAST IN THE
FUTURE YEARS, TO SEE WHAT THE
IMPACT OF THESE BETTER
NEAR-TERM RESULTS ARE HAVING ON
THE LONG-TERM PICTURE. SO
APPRECIATE THIS ADDITIONAL
CHART, BUT I THINK THAT
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WOULD BE
HELPFUL.
>> YES. YOU CAN HAVE THAT AND
WE CAN HAVE THOSE FURTHER
DISCUSSIONS. ANOTHER POINT ALSO
IN TERMS OF ONE-TIME AND
ONGOING. I'LL GO BACK TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POINT AND I
SHOULD'VE MADE IT PREVIOUS. TH
2023 REVISIONS WOULD HAVE BEEN
MORE POSITIVE, IF YOU WILL, BUT
FOR THESE ONE TIME THE FUNDS.
SO THERE IS IN TOTAL, MORE THAN
$5 MILLION IN REFUNDS COMING OU
OF THE GENERAL FUND IN 2023 THA
WE HADN'T KNOWN ABOUT IN AUGUST
SO THAT'S PART OF WHY WE GET
THIS DISCREPANCY WITH THE
INCREMENT FOR 2023 IS SMALL AND
2024 IS MORE SIGNIFICANT. THOSE
REFUNDS ARE ONE-TIME IN NATURE
PARTICULARLY ON THE UTILITY SID
. ON THE PAYROLL SIDE, THE
JUMPSTART PAYROLL EXPENSE SIDE,
WHOEVER REQUESTED A REFUND,
THAT WAS ONE TIME. IT'S
IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT
THERE HAVE BEEN LATE PAYMENTS
AND THERE WERE ALSO BE REFUNDS
NOT JUST IN 2021, BUT IN 20 22
AND 2023 GOING FORWARD. THERE
ARE RELATIVELY FEW PAYERS THAT
COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON NOTABLE IMPACT ON REVENUES
GOING FORWARD . THAT'S ONE OF
THESE THINGS WE ARE GOING TO
LIVE AND LEARN ABOUT, IF YOU
WILL. IT'S 2023 AND WE ARE NOW
PROCESSING THE 2021 REFUND. TH
KIND OF DELAY ISN'T UNUSUAL AND
IT'S SOMETHING THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH AND LEARN ABOUT A
WE GO FORWARD.
>> I WOULD ALSO ADD TO THAT A
NOTE OF APPRECIATION FOR THE
FINANCE AND ADMINISTRATIVE
SERVICES DEPARTMENT. DIRECTOR
CARNELL, I KNOW YOUR TEAM HAS
BEEN REALLY WORKING HARD WITH
THE PAY YOURS OF THE JUMPSTART
PROGRESSIVE PAYROLL TAX AND
THAT SORT OF LEVEL OF DETAIL AN
WORKING WITH THE ENTITIES THAT
ARE PAYING IS APPRECIATED. SO
SOMETIMES IT YIELDS A GAIT LATE
PAYMENT AND SOMETIMES IT YIELDS
A RETURN. THAT'S OKAY. I THINK
IT SHOWS THAT YOUR DEPARTMENT I
WORKING CLOSELY WITH THOSE WHO
ARE BEING ASSESSED UNDER THIS
TAX AND MAKING SURE WE GET IT
RIGHT. SO THIS IS ALL GOOD NEWS
I KNOW A SLIGHT DIP IN THE
EXPECTED REVENUE, BUT OVERALL I
THINK IT HELPS TO ENSURE THERE
IS FAIRNESS AND TRANSPARENCY,
AND THAT'S ALL GOOD. I WANTED T
THANK YOUR TEAM FOR THAT.
>> YOU'RE RIGHT, THIS IS FUL
OF TAXES AND WE ARE LEARNING A
LOT AS WE IMPLEMENT PAYROLL TAX
AND HOW TAXPAYERS ARE ALSO
LEARNING. SO IT'S GREAT WE HAVE
THIS TRANSPARENCY IN THE
FORECAST. THANK YOU.
>> LET ME ALSO EXPRESS MY
APPRECIATION TO THE DEPARTMENT
OF FINANCE AND THEY'RE TEXTING
BUT WE HAVE TO COORDINATE
CLOSELY WHEN WE HAVE THINGS THA
REFUNDS AND THEY HAVE BEEN
GREAT PARTNERS IN THIS. MUCH
APPRECIATED. WITH THAT, I WILL
MOVE ON AND TALK ABOUT THE
NON-GENERAL FUND RESOURCES, ONE
OF WHICH -- I TAKE IT BACK.
HEADING AHEAD OF MYSELF. JUST
WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE DIFFERENC
BETWEEN THE BASELINE AND
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST. LOOKING A
TWO PRIMARY REVENUE STREAMS
THAT ARE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
ECONOMY. ON THE LEFT IS RETAIL
SALES. SHOWS 23 AND 24 ON THE
RIGHT. VNO SHOWING 2324. I
GUESS THAT'S PEACH OR PINK. NO
MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
FORECASTS FOR 23 BECAUSE WE ARE
ALMOST 10 MONTHS OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE YEAR. IN 2024,
THOSE DIFFERENCES START TO
EMERGE AND THEY ARE
SIGNIFICANT. IF YOU ADD THEM UP
OVER TWO YEARS AND THESE TWO
SOURCES, THE DIFFERENCE WOULD B
ALMOST $27 MILLION FOR THE FUL
DIFFERENCE WOULD BE LARGER.
THESE ARE ONLY THE TWO PRIMARY
REVENUE STREAMS. IF WE WERE TO
SHIFT TO THE PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO, IT WOULD BE SOMEWHER
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30
MILLION PLUS DOLLARS DIFFERENC
IN RESOURCES AVAILABLE FOR 23
AND 24. WITH THAT, GOING TO
SHIFT TO TALK ABOUT NONGENERAL
FUND RESOURCES . AGAIN,
HIGHLIGHTING BEFORE, THOSE IN
BLUE ARE PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY
OF THE FORECAST OFFICE THE
BUDGET OFFICE , AND THE FORMAT
OF THE TABLE IS THE SAME. SO
JUMPING IN , FOR PAYROLL TAX,
YOU SEE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN THE 2023 . SO ALMOST $6
MILLION. WE HAVE A SEPARATE
COUPLE OF SLIDES TO TALK ABOUT
YOUR PAYROLL TAX. WE WILL DIG
INTO THAT MORE. LARGELY DRIVEN
BY CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS ABOU
STOCK VALUE WHICH IN TURN AFFEC
COMPENSATION. THUS THE SAME
DRIVER AND KEY ASPECT OF THE
NEARLY $20 MILLION INCREASE FOR
THAT SAME REVENUE STREAM SHOWIN
FOR 2024 . ANOTHER KEY DRIVER
THERE AND WE'LL TALK ABOUT THI
NEXT IS AN EXISTING DEDUCTION
THAT ADDS REVENUE TO THE
FORECAST AS WELL. WE'RE GOING
TO TALK ABOUT PAYROLL . THE
ADMISSIONS TAX UP SLIGHTLY FO
BOTH YEARS AGAIN. THIS
REPRESENTS REALIZED REVENUES AN
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
ENTERTAINMENT ACTIVITY, IF YOU
WILL. OTHER NOTABLE CHANGE HER
IS THE REAL ESTATE EXCISE TAX.
DECREASE OF APPROXIMATELY 1.9
MILLION FOR 23 AND ABOUT 1.7
MILLION FOR 2024. THIS IS THE
EFFECT OF HIGHER INTEREST RATES
AND IN PARTICULAR, GENERALIZE
SLOWER DEMAND FOR BOTH
RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL REAL
ESTATE. THESE REVISIONS REFLEC
REALIZED REVENUES. SO WE HAVE
BEEN BRINGING THIS FORECAST DOW
A BIT AT A TIME AS WE HAVE SEEN
REVENUES COME IN AND CONTINUE T
BE BELOW OUR EXPECTATIONS. THE
AGAIN, TO GIVE YOU A SENSE OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAS DROPPED
OFF, 2022 ACTUALS WERE MORE
THAN $90 MILLION AND WE ARE NO
EXPECTING 20 TO COME IN AT LESS
THAN $50 MILLION. THAT'S QUITE
SWING . THE 2022 ACTUALS STARTE
TO SLOW DOWN IN THE LAST QUARTE
OF 2022 , BUT THESE REVENUES
HAVE DROPPED OFF RATHER
PRECIPITOUSLY . SOME EVIDENCE
THAT THE RESIDENTIAL MARKETS AR
SHOWING SOME LIFE, BUT AGAIN ,
WE THINK THIS IS A PRUDENT AND
REASONABLE FORECAST UPDATE.
SALES TAX IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE OTHER SALES TAX INCREASE AN
THEN DECREASES TWO VEHICLE
LICENSE FEE . THERE WAS A DELAY
IN IMPLEMENTATION OF THE VLF
INCREASE. THAT HAD BEEN
APPROVED. THAT LEADS TO A SLIGH
DECLINE IN 2023 BUT IS IN AN
ONGOING ISSUE . THE
IMPLEMENTATION HAS OCCURRED, SO
THAT'S BEEN RESOLVED. 2024
REMAINS ON FORECAST . FORECAST
UNCHANGED. COMMERCIAL PARKING
TAX AGAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER
REALIZED REVENUES . BUDGET
OFFICE MAY HAVE MORE TO SAY
THERE. THEN FOR 2024,
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SPEED ZONE
ENFORCEMENT REVENUE FORECAST .
THAT'S RELATED TO SCHOOL
CONSTRUCTION . SO WHEN SCHOOLS
GO UNDER CONSTRUCTION , IS NO
LONGER A SCHOOL ZONE. SO CAMERA
GET TURNED OFF AND THERE IS
THEN LESS REVENUE TO BE
GENERATED. SO THE CITY HAS FUL
INFORMATION ABOUT WHICH SCHOOLS
WILL BE UNDER CONSTRUCTION FOR
24 ON THE NEXT REDUCTION.
BUDGET OFFICE, FEEL FREE TO
WEIGH IN IF I MISCHARACTERIZED
ANY OF THAT.
>> I THINK THAT'S ACCURATE.
JUST QUESTIONS. SEAM DIRECTOR
DINGLEY, DID YOU HAVE SOMETHING
OKAY. I SEE TOM MIKESELL'S
HAND. HAVE TO ASK FOR THE CITY
FAMILY, IT'S MORE THAN JUST
CONSTRUCTION ZONES, RIGHT? WE
HAD A DELAY IN IMPLEMENTATION O
THE SCHOOL ZONE CAMERAS THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED REVENUE
COMING TO THE CITY.
>> ABSOLUTELY. I DON'T HAVE AL
THE DETAILS BUT THERE WAS AN
ISSUE. THE 2024 NUMBER IS
FORWARD-LOOKING. SO THE PAST
ISSUES RESOLVED FOR TWO AND 24
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED
BECAUSE OF THE INFORMATION ABOU
THE SPECIFIC SCHOOL CONSTRUCTIO
ACTIVITY. SWIM AT THE FORECAST
DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY NEW
ADDITIONAL CAMERAS. OTHER THAN
THE SIX THAT WERE ADDED IN 2022
>> THANKS FOR THE CLARIFICATION
TOM MIKESELL, PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> APOLOGIES IF I MISSED IT, BU
WHAT WAS THE KEY VARIABLE
UNDERLYING THE REDUCTION IN THE
SCHOOL ZONE , FORECAST? I
LOOKED AT THE HISTORY AND A KIN
OF GOES UP AND GOES DOWN. I'M
TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THE
INPUT IS THAT'S CHANGING. SEAM
FOR 2024, A NUMBER OF SCHOOLS
WHERE THE CAMERAS ARE DEPLOYED
ARE GOING TO BE UNDER
CONSTRUCTION WILL NOT BE
OPERATING AS SCHOOLS. THERE AR
TWO SCHOOLS. MERCER MIDDLE
SCHOOL AND MONTLAKE ELEMENTARY
WERE CLOSED AS OF THE END OF TH
SCHOOL YEAR IN 2023 FOR
CONSTRUCTION. THEY WILL BE
CLOSED FOR APPROXIMATELY TWO
YEARS ACCORDING TO PLAN. SO
THERE IS A SMALL CHANGE IN 2023
FOR THAT FROM THE LOSS OF
ESSENTIALLY THE FALL SEMESTER.
AND THERE'S A FULL YEAR'S LOSS
CAPTURED IN 2024.
>> SO WE DIDN'T HAVE THAT
INFORMATION FOR THE AUGUST
FORECAST.
>> CORRECT. THANK YOU.
>> TOM, DID YOU HAVE ANOTHER
QUESTION IS THAT IT?
>> NO.
>> NO PROBLEM. REET, HAD A
QUESTION ABOUT REET. JUMP IN I
THERE ARE OTHER FOLKS TRYING TO
MAKE COMMENTS. THE QUESTION I
HAD ABOUT REET HERE WITH A
DECREASE IN EXPECTED REVENUE
FROM OVER $90 MILLION AND NO,
PROJECTED ABOUT HALF OF THAT.
THANK YOU AGAIN TO YOUR TEAM
FOR HELPING PROVIDE ANY
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT YO
HAVE ABOUT THE REQUESTED
CONSTRUCTION. I THINK OF THEIR
POLICY OPTIONS THAT THE OFFICE
COULD CONSIDER, IF THERE'S A
LOGJAM THAT WE CAN HELP FREE UP
OR PROVIDE RESOURCES IN THE
BUDGET , THIS TO ME IS A REVENU
GENERATOR. IT'S ALSO GOOD FOR
BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION
HOUSING AND JOBS HERE BUT IF
THEY CAN HELP US FUND SOME
CRITICAL PROGRAMS TO THE REET
REVENUE, THAT WOULD BE GOOD TO
KNOW. SO THANKS FOR SHARING
THAT. I WANTED TO ILLUSTRATE TH
POINT MORE ABOUT SEEING
REQUESTED VERSUS APPROVED
PERMITS.
>> ABSOLUTELY. JUST TO
EMPHASIZE, REET IS COLLECTED
FOR ANY REAL ESTATE TRANSACTION
BUT IT'S CERTAINLY TRUE THAT NE
CONSTRUCTION, OFTEN IT LEADS T
A SALE. SO THE BEST ONES FROM A
REVENUE PERSPECTIVE OUR
CONDOMINIUM BUILDING. THE
CONDOMINIUM GOES UP AND THEY
SELL WELL. THERE ARE 200 UNITS
AND 200 SEPARATE TRANSACTIONS
WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO THIS TAX.
AND COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEVELOPER
OFTEN BUILD A BUILDING AND WILL
SELL IT TO SOMEONE WHO'S GOING
TO OPERATE IT. SO CONSTRUCTION
ACTIVITY IS CORRELATED WITH REA
ESTATE EXCISE ACTIVITY. THE
CURRENT SUPPRESSION, IF YOU
WILL OF THAT ACTIVITY IS IN PAR
DUE TO THE HIGH INTEREST RATES
WHICH IS AFFECTING BOTH
CONSTRUCTION SIDE OF THINGS AN
ALSO BEING ABLE TO FINANCE THE
PURCHASE OF EXISTING BUILDINGS.
BUT WE WILL AGAIN FOLLOW-UP
WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ABOUT PERMITTING. IF THERE
AREN'T FURTHER QUESTIONS ON TH
SLY, I WANT TO SPEND TIME AND
TURN IT OVER TO JAN AGAIN TO
GIVE YOU MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
THE PAYROLL TAX FORECAST TO
UNDERSTAND WHAT LED TO THE
CHANGES THAT WE MENTIONED
LEGISLATION THAT COULD AFFECT
THOSE REVENUES HERE AND GIVE
YOU A SENSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
AND POTENTIAL VARIANCE THERE
WHICH IS IN THE EXTREME , IF YO
WILL. SO WITH THAT, THAT'S
WEIRD. THERE WE GO.
>> HERE'S SOME ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND SOME CONTEXT
THAT IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING WHAT 2023 AND 24
LOOK LIKE. WHAT'S DRIVING THOSE
REVISIONS. AND I'LL TALK SOME
MORE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE JUMPSTART PAYROL
TAX IN GENERAL SINCE THIS IS A
NEW TAX REVENUE IN PLACE . WE
ESSENTIALLY ONLY HAVE TWO YEARS
OF TAX COLLECTION AND ARE
UNDERSTANDING OF THE TAX IS
GETTING MORE FAMILIAR WITH THE
SOURCE AND GETTING A BETTER
UNDERSTANDING OF ALL THE FACTOR
THAT ARE BEHIND THE TAX AND HO
IT DEVELOPS OVER TIME. SO FIRST
THE REVISIONS FOR 2023 . THE
DOWNWARD REVISION FOR 2023 IS
MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE LOWER
EXPECTATIONS FOR STOCK-PRICE
VALUES FOR THE REST OF 2023.
AUGUST OUR SUMMER IN GENERAL WA
A PEEK FOR STOCK MARKET AND
SINCE , STOCK MARKET PRICES HAV
RETREATED SLIGHTLY. SO THE CHAR
ON THE RIGHT SHOWS THE
EXPECTATIONS IN AUGUST AND LIGH
BLUE AND THE CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS AND DARKER BLUE .
THE POINT IS THE AVERAGE
EXPECTED YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE
AND LYING TO THE LEFT AND RIGHT
SHOWS HOW MUCH UNCERTAINTY THER
IS IN BETWEEN THE LOWER AND THE
HIGH STOCK PRICE TARGETS. THE
DATA HERE IS COLLECTED FROM THE
WALL STREET JOURNAL ANALYSTS
AND WHAT THEY BELIEVE IS THE
LIKELY FUTURE AND TRAJECTORY
FOR DIFFERENT STOCK PRICES. A
COUPLE OF COMPANIES THAT WE ARE
LISTING HERE FOR ILLUSTRATIVE
PURPOSES ARE KNOWN TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT FOOTPRINT HERE IN
SEATTLE AND SO THEY PROVIDE GOO
INSIGHT OF HOW THE STOCK-PRICE
VALUES ARE FOR TAXPAYERS IN
GENERAL WOULD BE EVOLVING. IN
ADDITION TO THE STOCK PRICE ,
WE HAVE RETURNED TO THE OFFICE
DATA . RETURN TO THE OFFICE DAT
AVAILABLE WAS MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING IN
AUGUST. SO THE DOWNWARD
TRAJECTORY IS DRIVEN BY LOWER
STOCK PRICE EXPECTATIONS WHICH
WE HAVE COME TO LEARN A MAJOR
FACTOR CERTAINLY FOR THE BIGGE
COMPANIES AND FOR THE HIGHER
TIERS . STOCK-PRICE CHANGES ARE
DRIVING THE CHANGES IN THE
COMPENSATION AS A BIG PART OF
SALARIES IN TERMS OF
RESTRICTING STOCK TRENDS THAT
ARE SUBJECT TO THE JUMPSTART
PAYROLL EXPENSE TAX. SO LOOKING
AT 2024, FROM A SIGNIFICANT
UPWARD REVISION IN EXPECTED
REVENUE IS COMING FROM OUR
REVISED APPROACH OF THE FORECAS
SYSTEM WE ARE CLOSER TO YEAR EN
BUT WE ARE ABLE TO INCORPORATE
THE EXPECTED STOCK-PRICE CHANGE
FOR 2023. SO LOOKING AT THE
NEXT YEAR AND THE YEAR OVER
YEAR STOCK-PRICE CHANGE. THE
ANALYSTS BELIEVE 2023 -- SORR
24 WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR THE
STOCK MARKET AND THEY ARE
EXPECTING ON AVERAGE, STOCK
PRICES TO GO UP . SO AGAIN, TH
PURPLE ON THOSE LINES SHOWS
THE AVERAGE EXPECTED
STOCK-PRICE CHANGE
YEAR-OVER-YEAR. THE PRICE
CHANGE. THE LINE SHOWS THE
RANGE FROM LOW TO HIGH . YOU CA
SEE THERE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED THERE FOR
PRETTY MUCH ALL THESE COMPANIES
AND THERE'S AN ILLUSTRATIVE
EXAMPLE OF THOSE THAT HAVE A
MAJOR FOOTPRINT HERE IN SEATTLE
WE HAVE INCORPORATED THOSE
STOCK-PRICE -- PROJECT IS
STOCK-PRICE VALUES. IN ADDITION
TO THAT, INCLUDING WHAT OUR
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE RETURN
TO THE OFFICE AND LAST, ADDED
SOME REVENUE. NONPROFIT HEALTH
CARE AND EXEMPTION WHICH ADDE
ROUGHLY 4.5 MILLION IN THE NET
FORECAST. I SAW SOME QUESTION,
I BELIEVE.
>> THANKS, DIRECTOR DINGLEY.
>> I WAS WONDERING ABOUT THIS
BECAUSE I KNOW THIS DATA IS
RELATIVELY NEW IN THEIR USE IN
FORECASTING FOR THIS REVENUE
SOURCE. I'M WONDERING HOW
ACCURATE YOU HAVE FOUND THESE
PREDICTIONS TO BE? I DO SEE IN
THE CHART, TO GIVE THEMSELVES
QUITE A WIDESPREAD -- TO BE
WRONG. I WONDER IF WE HAVE
ENOUGH EXPERIENCE IN USING THES
DATA POINTS TO GET A SENSE ?
>> IF WE CAN GO TO THE NEXT
SLIDE, THAT WOULD BE THE ONE I
WANT TO TALK MORE ABOUT IN
GENERAL. HOW UNCERTAIN -- HOW
MUCH UNCERTAINTY THERE IS AND
HOW MUCH WE DO KNOW AND HOW
MUCH WE DON'T KNOW. I WILL
PROBABLY BE TALKING MORE ABOUT
THE DOWNSIDE . THERE IS
CERTAINLY AN UPSIDE RISK FOR TH
REVENUE AS WELL. IF YOU ARE
FIRST LOOKING AT THAT CHART AT
THE BOTTOM RIGHT, IT SHOWS THE
RANGE OF OUTCOMES BASED ON THE
STOCK-PRICE . VALUES FOR 2024.
HOW BIG OF A RANGE IN REVENUE
FROM JUMPSTART EXPENSE WILL BE
FOR TWIN 24. YOU CAN SEE THE
RANGE IS ABOUT 100 MILLION. SO
ROUGHLY 50 MILLION LESS THAN
THE BASELINE . PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO, ROUGHLY 50 MILLION
MORE . ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SCENARIO. THAT IS REALLY JUST
DRIVEN BY WHAT THE MODEL
PREDICTIONS ARE BASED ON. BASE
ON THOSE RATINGS FROM THE WALL
STREET JOURNAL AND THE RANGE O
STOCK-PRICE VALUES ON THE
PREVIOUS CHART. BACK TO THE
QUESTION, HOW PRECISE DO WE
THINK THESE FORECASTS FOR
STOCK PRICES ARE AND HOW MUCH
VALUE, HOW MUCH THEY BRING TO
THE FORECAST? AGAIN, WE ONLY
HAVE TWO YEARS OF DATA
COLLECTION SO IT'S HARD TO HOW
MUCH OF A FACTOR THESE STOCK
PRICES ARE . 2021 AND 2022 WER
CERTAINLY QUITE UNUSUAL YEARS
FOR THE STOCK MARKET. THE TECH
COMPANY SAW A LARGE INCREASE IN
STOCK PRICES AND THEN A
SIGNIFICANT DROP. I SAW THE SAM
SORT OF BEHAVIOR THE JUMPSTART
PAYROLL EXPENSE TAX REVENUE. W
COLLECTED MORE THAN 290 IN THE
FIRST YEAR AND THEN IT DROP TO
250. THAT SUPPORTS OUR REVIEW
THAT THE STOCK-PRICE CHANGES AR
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR BECAUSE WHE
IT COMES TO THE RETURN TO THE
OFFICE, THERE HAS BEEN A GENERA
TREND UPWARD , UPWARD TREND. WE
HAVE NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT
AFFECTIVE LAYOFFS IN THE TECH
SECTOR. IT'S NOT BEEN SO STRONG
FOR 2022. WE CERTAINLY DID NOT
DROP AS MUCH AS THE REVENUE HAS
DROPPED. THAT AGAIN REINFORCES
OUR VIEW AND THE MODEL, THE
STATISTICAL MODEL TO DEVELOP
SUPPORT THAT STOCK PRICES ARE
AN IMPORTANT FACTOR. ON THAT
SIDE, WE HAVE MORE WORK TO DO
AND WANT TO DO SOME FURTHER
ANALYSIS INTO THE POSITION OF
HOW PRECISE THE WALL STREET
JOURNAL ANALYSTS ARE. LOOKING
12 MONTHS INTO THE FUTURE FOR
STOCK PRICES. THAT'S QUITE A
LOT IN SOME CASES. WE PLAN TO D
THAT. AND THEN WE HAVE A FULL
YEAR FOR 2023, WE WILL
REEVALUATE THE MODEL AND SEE
HOW PREDICTIONS OF THAT MODEL
CHANGE. THERE CERTAINLY GOING
TO BE -- THERE'S A POSSIBILITY
OF FURTHER LARGE REVISIONS. SO
IN GENERAL, THAT HIGHLIGHTS ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY . EVEN IF WE
WERE COMPLETELY ABLE TO FORECAS
STOCK PRICES AND KNEW WHAT THE
STOCK PRICES ARE DOING, WE STIL
DON'T KNOW TO WHAT EXTENT THEY
ARE LINKED TO THE REVENUE. WE
BELIEVE THERE'S QUITE A
SIGNIFICANT ONE IN THERE BUT WE
ARE STILL LEARNING ABOUT THAT.
IN ADDITION, THERE ARE CERTAIN
OTHER FACTORS WITH THE CHART O
TOP . IT'S TRYING TO ILLUSTRATE
THE RETURN TO THE OFFICE ON
THE LONGER HORIZON . WE SEE SOM
RISK THE REVENUE COMING FROM
THE HIGHER OFFICE RATES. IT
APPEARS THAT THE RETURN TO THE
OFFICE AS MORE OR LESS PLATEAUE
AND DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IN
GENERAL, IS NOT BELIEVED WE WIL
BE GOING BACK TO FOUR OR FIVE
YEARS -- OR FIVE DAYS BACK IN
THE OFFICE. BECAUSE OF THAT,
THE OFFICE VACANCY RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB
FURTHER . AS LEASES EXPIRE,
COMPANIES WILL BE REEVALUATING
HOW MUCH OFFICE SPACE TO KEEP.
TO LET IT EXPIRE AND WERE
EXACTLY TO RELOCATE WORKERS.
RIGHT NOW TO SOME EXTENT, THESE
COMPANIES , THERE IS POTENTIAL
TO LOSE -- SOME OF THE WORKER
ARE POSSIBLY RELOCATING OUTSIDE
OF THE CITY. OF THAT KIND OF
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THERE'S
PART OF A TAX BASE THAT'S AT
RISK AND THAT RISK IS NOT
REALLY INCORPORATED IN THE
FORECAST. IT'S VERY HARD TO
QUANTIFY HOW MUCH OF A TAX BAS
MAY BE BECAUSE OF THAT , THOS
RISING OFFICE VACANCY RATES AND
MORE SPACE AVAILABLE FOR
COMPANIES AND COMPANIES THAT AR
SEEING THESE EXPIRE AND BE A
VALID AND WERE EXACTLY TO BE
BASED. IN ADDITION, WE ARE
OMITTED ON WHAT SORT OF DATA WE
HAVE AVAILABLE AND UNDERSTANDIN
IN GENERAL THE PAYROLL AND HOW
PAYROLL EVOLVES OVER TIME TO
REQUIRE US TO GET SOME
ADDITIONAL DATA. ONE OF THE
THINGS WE HAVE BEEN WORKING ON
THIS YEAR AND SPENT QUITE A
SIGNIFICANT TIME AND EFFORT ,
TOGETHER WITH THE I.T.
DEPARTMENT WAS WORKED ON THESE,
WE WERE TRYING TO GET ACCESS
TO DATA ONLY OR CLOSE TO
FINALIZING . WE HAVE SIGNED A
DATA SHARING AGREEMENT AND THE
DATABASE IS ALMOST IN PLACE.
THAT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
FURTHER LOOK INTO THE DATA.
FURTHER INTO THAT QUESTION OF
HOW MUCH OF A FACTOR ARE THE
STOCK PRICES AND HOW MUCH THEY
ARE DRIVING THE PAYROLL FOR THE
COMPANIES AND THE EMPLOYEES
WHOSE COMPENSATION IS SUBJECT T
THE TAX. AGAIN, JUST TO
ILLUSTRATE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
HERE . SOME UPSIDE, SOME
DOWNSIDE. HER EFFORTS TO
UNDERSTAND THE BASE BETTER AND
IMPROVE OUR MODELING.
>> IF I COULD ADD , EMPHASIZE
THE UNCERTAINTY. WE PUT THE
NUMBERS ON TABLES BUT IT'S
REALLY VERY DIFFERENT. OUR LEVE
OF COMFORT AND CERTAINTY IS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO THIS PARTICULA
REVENUE STREAM AND IT'S A LARGE
ONE. SO 310 MILLION ROUGHLY AT
THE BASE. IS PLUS OR -50. THAT'
CONSISTENT. WE SAW A $50 MILLIO
DROP FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT
SO THAT'S REAL IN TERMS OF HOW
THIS REVENUE STREAM BEHAVES.
ANOTHER POINT TO EMPHASIZE . JA
WAS DESCRIBING THE RETURN TO TH
OFFICE ESSENTIALLY PLATEAUING
IN OFFICE VACANCIES. WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A YEAR IN TERMS O
ITS EFFECT TO JUMPSTART PAYROLL
TAX BUT BNO TAX IS VERY
LOCATION SPECIFIC. SO POTENTIAL
FOR LUST FOLKS WORKING IN THE
CITY WILL AFFECT THE ENDO
REVENUES AS WELL. WE HAVEN'T
SEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE .
HAVEN'T BEEN GOING FAST THEY
WERE BEFORE BUT THIS POTENTIALL
WILL BE GROWTH THAT WERE NOT
GOING TO EXPERIENCE. IT'S WHAT
COULD HAVE BEEN RATHER THAN SEE
AS A BIG DROP FROM OUR CURRENT
BASE . WORKERS AND CITY TO MAKE
A DIFFERENCE FOR OUR REVENUES
WERE NOT JUST FOR JUMPSTART.
THEY FACT BNO TO A LESSER
EXTENT, SALES TAX AS WELL.
THAT'S WHAT WE HAVE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST THESE LAST TW
SLIDES ON JUMPSTART WERE TO
MAKE A POINT AND DIRECTOR
DINGLEY'S QUESTION WAS
WELL-TIMED ABOUT THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY AROUND THAT
FORECAST. BUT OTHERWISE, WE'VE
GIVEN YOU THE FULL SET OF
NUMBERS AND HAPPY TO ANSWER
QUESTIONS. HAPPY TO HIGHLIGHT
OTHER PREVIOUS SLIDES AS WELL.
SEE MY THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
THANKS FOR THE LAST PART OF THI
CONVERSATION. UNDERSCORES MUCH
OF THE DISCUSSION THAT WE HAVE
ALSO BEEN HAVING IN THE REVENU
STABILIZATION WORKGROUP MIGHT B
TEMPTING TO THINK THERE'S A
SIMPLE ANSWER TO ADDRESS THE
GAP BETWEEN EXPENSES AND REVENU
BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OF
THE JUMPSTART PROGRESS IN
PAYROLL TAX, IT'S A GOOD MORNIN
AND GOOD REMINDER TO FOLKS THE
NEWNESS OF THE TEXT BUT ALSO TH
VOLATILITY OF THIS SPECIFIC
SECTOR AND RELATIVELY FEW
NUMBER OF PAY WARS INTO THIS
AREA WHICH WE ARE SEEING FROM
THE EARLIER CHART OF EBBS AND
FLOWS IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER O
EMPLOYEES PROJECTED TO REMAIN
IN OUR LOCAL REGION .
SPECIFICALLY IN THE TECH SECTOR
WHICH IS A NATIONAL TREND AS
WELL. SO THANKFUL THAT WE HAVE
THE PAY WARS OF JUMPSTART
HELPING TO BOISE OUR LOCAL
ECONOMY WITH INVESTMENTS IN
JUMPSTART AND THAT WE'VE BEEN
ABLE TO STRIKE A BALANCE, A
TEMPORARY BALANCING COMPROMISE
FOR THE USE OF PROGRESSIVE
PAYROLL TAX AND THANKFUL THAT
WE HAVE A COMMON UNDERSTANDING
OF HOW THAT COULD BE USED FOR
2023 AND 2024 . WHAT WE ALSO
RECOGNIZE THAT THERE ARE MANY
MORE REVENUE STREAMS THAT NEED
TO BE BALANCED OR ENHANCED TO
CREATE GREATER STABILITY IN TH
YEARS. SO THANK YOU FOR
ILLUSTRATING THE UNIQUENESS OF
JUMPSTART. I WOULD ALSO NOTE I
THINK THERE IS A COMMONALITY
BETWEEN THE EXECUTIVE AND
LEGISLATIVE BRANCH AS IT RELATE
TO THE HEALTH SCIENCE SECTOR
PAY WARS WHICH WAS SLATED TO
SUNSET LATER THIS YEAR, GIVEN
THE ONGOING STAKEHOLDER THAT
NEEDS TO HAPPEN ANY
CONVERSATIONS THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ENGAGED IN ON TRYING TO CREATE
STABILITY FOR THE HEALTH
SCIENCES SECTOR. THAT'S PLAN T
BE EXTENDED IN THE LEGISLATION
THAT THE MAYOR HAS TRANSMITTED
AND I THINK THERE'S
UNDERSTANDING THAT MORE
CONVERSATIONS WOULD NEED TO
HAPPEN WITHOUT SECTOR BEFORE
IMPLEMENTATION OF THAT
ASSESSMENT. SO I THINK THAT'S
SOMETHING TO NOTE IN TERMS OF
THE AVAILABLE REVENUE THAT WOUL
BE AVAILABLE TO THE CITY FAMILY
TO ADDRESS THE ONGOING NEEDS IN
THE NEAR TERM, BUT ALSO WE WOUL
ANTICIPATE THAT BEING PUT INTO
PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
THREE YEARS. I'M SEEING NOT
FROM DIRECTOR DINGLEY. ANYTHING
ELSE FOLKS WOULD LIKE TO ADD ?
ANY QUESTIONS WERE DIRECTOR
NOBLE AND THE OVERALL
PRESENTATION INTO THE ENTIRE
TEAM? COLLIES, WE NOW HAVE A
CHANCE TO DELIVER THE QUESTION
IN FRONT OF US OF WHETHER OR NO
THE FORECAST, SO SHOULD CONCUR
WITH THE FORECAST AND
RECOMMENDATION TO USE THE
BASELINE FORECAST. WE CAN
COLLECTIVELY CONCUR WITH THE
RECOMMENDATION, NO VOTE IS
NEEDED. INSTEAD, IT WOULD
SIMPLY BE DIRECTED THAT THE
MEETING MINUTES REFLECT OUR
CONCURRENCE. WARNED, AND I WAN
TO ENCOURAGE DISCUSSION ON THIS
IF THERE IS A DESIRE TO ADOPT
ONE OF THE ALTERNATE FORECAST
SCENARIOS, THE PESSIMISTIC OR
OPTIMISTIC, WE WOULD NEED TO
VOTE ON SUCH A PROPOSAL . I JUS
WANT TO PAUSE HERE TO SEE IF
THERE'S ANY INTEREST IN
CONSIDERING AN ALTERNATIVE
APPROACH ? I FOR ONE AM
COMFORTABLE WITH THE BASELINE
FORECAST THAT'S BEING
RECOMMENDED HERE TODAY . I'M
SEEING SOME NODS HERE TODAY. IF
THERE IS NO SUCH INTEREST IN
CONSIDERING AN ALTERNATIVE
APPROACH, I WILL, UNLESS
THERE'S OBJECTION, DIRECT THE
OFFICE TO SHOW OUR CONCURRENCE
WITH THE BASELINE FORECAST. IF
THERE'S NO OBJECTION, LET'S
RECORD OUR CONCURRENCE WITH THE
BASELINE FORECAST IN THE MEETIN
MINUTES. OKAY. WAS THERE A
COMMENT ON THAT?
>> I WAS GOING TO SAY, CONSIDER
IT DONE.
>> PERFECT. THAT'S WHAT WE LIKE
TO HEAR. DIRECTOR NOBLE, I
WOULD LOVE TO FOLLOW-UP WITH YO
PERHAPS AS WELL WITH DIRECTOR
DINGLEY. WE KNOW WE HAVE A
MEETING ON FRIDAY AND SEEING
SOME OF THE LONGER-TERM
SCENARIOS, SPECIFICALLY TOM
MIKESELL NOTED HIS IS OF
INTEREST TO US. WE WOULD LOVE T
TALK WITH YOU ABOUT WHAT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE TO PRESENT AS IN
ADDITION TO THIS PRESENTATION
WE HAVE HERE. WE KNOW IS A
TRUNCATED VERSION OF THE
PRESENTATION, BUT NOW WE ARE
ASKING YOU TO ADD MORE . SO WE'
LIKE TO BALANCE THAT WITH YOU
AND APPRECIATE IF YOU ARE ABLE
TO ACCOMMODATE SUCH A REQUEST
ON A SHORT TIME FRAME HERE, THA
WOULD BE HELPFUL. SO WE WILL
HAVE MORE CONVERSATION ABOUT
THIS AND OUR GOAL IS ALWAYS IS
TO MAKE SURE THE INFORMATION
PRESENTED IN PUBLIC IN REAL-TIM
VIA THE SEATTLE CHANNEL TO
MEMBERS OF THE PRESS AND
COMMUNITY AND WE ALSO WANT TO
UNDERSCORE SOME TAKEAWAYS FROM
THIS PRESENTATION . WE FOLD IN
ADDITIONAL REVENUE STREAMS THAT
ARE NOT WITHIN THE OFFICE OF
THE ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST T
PRESENT A FULL PICTURE IN OUR
FOLLOWING MEETINGS IN FINANCE
AND HOUSING THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, WE ARE IN BUDGET
COMMITTEES OR NEXT BUDGET
COMMITTEE IS ON FRIDAY. AGAIN,
LOOK FORWARD TO CHATTING WITH
YOU ABOUT WHAT IS POSSIBLE TO
INCLUDE IN TERMS OF THE LONGER
SCENARIO AND A PRESENTATION ON
FRIDAY. WITH THAT, WE WILL HAV
MORE FOLLOW-UP CONVERSATIONS,
WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO MOVE US TO
ITEM 4 ON THE AGENDA. HEARING N
OBJECTION, WAS MOVED TO AGENDA
ITEM NUMBER FOUR . THIS IS THE
PROPOSED POLICY GOVERNING
CONFIDENTIAL REQUESTS MADE BY
THE OFFICE OF ECONOMIC AND
REVENUE FORECAST FOR DISCUSSION
AND POSSIBLE VOTE AS WE DIVE
INTO THIS ISSUE. I WANT TO
PROVIDE CONTEXT . AS I NOTED AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE MEETING,
WHEN THE SEATTLE CITY COUNCIL T
ESTABLISH THE INDEPENDENT OFFIC
OF THE ECONOMIC REVENUE
FORECAST, THE PRIMARY FUNCTION
WE HAD IN MIND FOR THE OFFICE
WAS PREPARATION OF THE CITY'S
QUARTERLY REVENUE FORECAST. BU
WE RECOGNIZE THAT THE FORECAST
OFFICE WORK WOULD BE ONGOING
AND CYCLICAL . PEEKING WITH A
PRESENTATION OF THE FORECAST
COME BUT LESS INTENSE AT OTHER
TIMES. WE ALSO RECOGNIZE THAT
WITHIN THE OFFICE, WE HAVE
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EXPERTIS
THAT ARE A VALUABLE ASSET TO
THE CITY AS WE CONSIDER POSSIBL
PROPOSALS , AS WE WANT TO FLUS
OUT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR
POLICY DELIBERATIONS. WHETHER
THAT'S IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH
OR LEGISLATIVE BRANCH. SO
ACCORDINGLY, THE AUTHORIZING
LEGISLATION IS NOTED THAT THE
FORECAST OFFICE WOULD BE
AVAILABLE FOR THAT TYPE OF
RESEARCH FOR BOTH THE EXECUTIV
AND LEGISLATIVE BRANCH AND WE
REALLY UNDERSCORE THE IMPORTANC
OF HAVING THE BODY , THE OFFICE
OF REVENUE FORECASTS AVAILABLE
TO BOTH BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT.
THESE TASKS COULD BE JOINTLY
REQUESTED OF THE REVENUE
FORECAST OR COULD BE SEPARATEL
REQUESTED BY THE EXECUTIVE OR
LEGISLATIVE BRANCH. RECOGNIZIN
THAT SOMETIMES CONFIDENTIALITY
IS IMPORTANT AS WE THINK THROUG
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND DON'T
WANT TO ALARM EITHER BRANCH OF
GOVERNMENT , OR THAT THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF INFORMATION
IS BEING REQUESTED , BEING
ASSUMED TO YIELD A CERTAIN
OUTCOME BUT NOT NECESSARILY
READY FOR PRIME TIME .
CONFIDENTIALITY IS IMPORTANT AN
SOMETHING THAT I RESPECT THAT'
NEEDED FROM BOTH BRANCHES OF
GOVERNMENT. DIRECTOR NOBLE HAS
BROUGHT FORWARD A PROPOSAL TO
HELP CLARIFY OUR COLLECTIVE
EXPECTATIONS ABOUT HOW THE
FORECAST OFFICE SHOULD CONDUCT
AND SHARE ITS WORK . I
APPRECIATE THAT DIRECTOR NOBLE
HAS BEEN PROACTIVE IN MAKING
THIS PROPOSAL AND I LOOK FORWAR
TO DISCUSSING IT WITH THE FULL
COUNSEL AFTER HE PROVIDES THIS
OVERVIEW. SO AGAIN, THANK YOU
FOR THE FORESIGHT TO BRING THIS
FORWARD FOR OUR DISCUSSION AND
DELIBERATION. WE ARE STILL IN
OUR SOMEWHAT INFANCY. I THINK
WE ARE NEAR THE END OF OUR
SECOND YEAR WITH THE FORECAST
COUNSEL, SO STILL RELATIVELY NE
AND APPRECIATE THE ENHANCED
POLICY YOU'RE BRINGING FORWARD
HERE TODAY FOR DISCUSSION.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH,
COUNCILMEMBER. " TO DIVE INTO
THE POWERPOINT TO GIVE YOU ALL
SUMMARY OF THE PROPOSAL.
THERE'S A COPY OF THE WRITTEN
POLICY THAT WAS IN THE MATERIAL
. LET ME TAKE A MOMENT -- DID
THAT WRONG. TO WALK YOU THROUG
IN MORE DETAIL WHAT WE ARE
PROPOSING AND WHY. I PICKED TH
WRONG ONE. SORRY. ONE SET.
>> I WENT TO FLIGHT FOR FOLKS
WHILE THERE'S A PAUSE, MY
INTERNET IS COMING IN AND OUT,
SO IF I COME OFF SCREEN, I'LL
TRY TO JOIN BACK AGAIN WITH
THAT.
>> I'M HAVING ISSUES ON MY END.
WHEN SICK. I'LL TRY TO SHARE
THIS AGAIN. I DON'T KNOW WHY.
YOU ALL CANNOT SEE THAT, CAN
YOU? SWING THAT WE CAN SEE IT
PRETTY GOOD. IT'S NO PROBLEM.
NOW IT'S EVEN BETTER.
>> ALL RIGHT. SO WHY SUCH A
POLICY NEEDED? AS YOU
DESCRIBED, COUNCILMEMBER, OUR
PRIMARY FUNCTION IS TO PREPARE
THE REVENUE FORECAST, BUT WE
ALSO HAVE A WORK PROGRAM THAT
ALLOWS US TO DO WORK FOR EITHER
BRANCH. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
IT COULD BE DONE IN CONFIDENCE
SO THAT'S THE BACKGROUND. ONE
OF THE THINGS I'VE COME TO
REALIZE IS THAT OUR
EFFECTIVENESS REALLY DEPENDS ON
THE TRUST WE HAVE FROM BOTH
BRANCHES AND THAT WE ARE SEEN
AS A NEUTRAL AND INDEPENDENT
PARTY. SO WE CAN'T AFFORD TO
HAVE EVEN A PERCEPTION THAT
THAT IS THE CASE. WHAT I CAME T
REALIZE IS THAT THERE WAS AT
LEAST POTENTIAL THAT IF WE DID
WORK FOR ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER,
THAT WE MIGHT BE PERCEIVED AS
SUPPORTING ONE SIDE OR THE OTHE
. IN PARTICULAR, IF HER RESEARC
ENDED UP BEING USED IN SUPPORT
OF SOME POLICY PROPOSAL THAT
THE OTHER BRANCH MIGHT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THAT THE
FORECAST OFFICE HAD LINED UP
BEHIND WHATEVER THIS PROPOSAL
MIGHT BE , THAT WOULDN'T HAVE
BEEN THE CASE. WHAT WE WOULD
HAVE DONE HIS ANSWER SOME
RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND PROVIDE
SOME ESTIMATE. WHEN I MIGHT BE
MISINTERPRETED THAT WAY. GIVEN
THAT WE DEPEND ON THE TRUST AND
FAITH ON BOTH BRANCHES , THAT
ISN'T SOMETHING WE WOULD WANT T
RISK AT ALL EVEN A LITTLE BIT,
IF YOU WILL. SO I THOUGHT IT
WOULD BE HELPFUL FOR ALL OF US
TO UNDERSTAND IF WE HAVE TO DO
SOME WORK ON A CONFIDENTIAL
BASIS , WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THAT
WORK IS DONE? HOW IS IT SHARED
AND IN WHAT WAYS? SO WORK OUT
DRAFT POLICY THAT PROVIDED TO
YOU -- LET ME WALK TO THE KEY
POINTS. ONE RIGHT OFF THE BAT
IS PUBLIC DISCLOSURE OBLIGATION
SO THIS POLICY TALKS ABOUT
BEING ABLE TO KEEP INFORMATION
IN CONFIDENCE, BUT NONE OF THIS
POLICY SPEAKS TO OR CAN
SUPERSEDE THE SAFE PUBLIC
RECORDS ACT. SO IF THE FORECAS
OFFICE GETS A PUBLIC DISCLOSURE
REQUEST, THIS POLICY DOESN'T
INHERENTLY AFFECT THAT IN ANY
WAY. THERE MAY BE A PROCESS
EXEMPTION THAT'S AVAILABLE OR
NOT, BUT THIS POLICY ISN'T
DESIGNED IN ANY WAY TO GET IN
THE WAY OF OUR PUBLIC
DISCLOSURE OBLIGATIONS. WE ARE
A RELATIVELY SMALL OUTFIT SO
THE I'M THE PUBLIC DISCLOSURE
OFFICER FOR THE OFFICE. IT WAS
RELATED TO CONFIDENTIAL WORK, I
WILL WORK TO CONSULT WITH EITHE
BRANCH THAT HAD REQUESTED THE
WORK AND FIGURE OUT WHAT'S THE
RIGHT THING TO DO . I DID WRITE
IN THE POLICY THAT AFTER THOSE
CONSULTATIONS, IS THE FORECAST
OFFICE THAT WOULD DECIDE WHAT T
DO ULTIMATELY. SOMEONE HAS TO
DECIDE. BUT I DON'T EXPECT
THERE TO BE ISSUES THERE. I JUS
WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT IT
STILL APPLIES. WORKING
MATERIALS. IT COULD WELL BE THA
WE DO SOME RESEARCH PROJECT AND
WITH SOME ANALYSIS OR EVEN A
REVENUE ESTIMATE FOR ONE BRANCH
WITH THE OTHER AND GIVEN WHAT
WE'VE PROVIDED, THE RESPECTIVE
BRANCH SAYS THAT WAS A BAD IDEA
BUT WE ARE NOT INTERESTED IN
PURSUING THAT AND WE ARE GOING
TO PUT IT DOWN. IN WHICH CASE
WE WOULD PUT IT DOWN TOO AND
THAT COULD BE THE END OF IT.
IT'S NOT GOING ANYWHERE . I'LL
THINK WE HAVE AN INHERENT
RESPONSIBILITY TO NEED TO SHARE
IT WITH THE OTHER BRANCH. SO
THAT'S ONE THING ABOUT WORKING
MATERIALS. IF THINGS ARE GOING
TO BE MADE IN OUR WORK IS GOIN
TO BE MADE PUBLIC IN ANY WAY,
ONE KEY ELEMENT OF THE POLICY I
ABOUT TRANSPARENCY. IT SAYS IF
YOU'RE GOING TO USE OUR NUMBERS
YOU HAVE TO CITE US AND SAY THA
THAT'S WHERE IT'S FROM. THAT'S
NOT MY EGO. JUST TRANSPARENCY
THAT WHOEVER IS CONSUMING THIS
YOU KNOW IS COMING FROM THIS
INDEPENDENT OFFICE AND YOU
UNDERSTAND THAT. SO THAT'S A
TRANSPARENCY THING AND I THINK
THAT'S STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE
CORE OF THE POLICY IS THE NEXT
ONE. IT'S NO SURPRISES NOTION.
IDEALLY, IF WE DO GOOD WORK AN
IT'S ABOUT AN IMPORTANT POLICY
PROPOSAL, EITHER BRANCH WILL
WANT TO BRING SOMETHING FORWARD
AND MAKE IT PUBLIC EITHER AS
PART OF A PRESENTATION OF A
GENERAL PROPOSAL OR SOMETHING
MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT. WHAT
I'VE OUTLINED AND PROPOSED HERE
IS THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN. IF
OUR WORK IS GOING TO BE USED TO
ADVANCE IN A PUBLIC WAY A
PROPOSAL OR EVEN A GENERALIZED
DISCUSSION LED BY EITHER
BRANCH, THAT WE ARE GIVEN A
OPPORTUNITY , NOT A LONG ONE,
TWO OR THREE DAYS, TO LET THE
OTHER BRANCH KNOW WHAT WE WORKE
ON AND WHERE THESE NUMBERS COME
FROM. AGAIN, THE IDEA IS IF WE
ARE GIVEN THE CHANCE TO INFORM
THE OTHER BRANCH, IT MINIMIZES
ANY RISK THAT WE MIGHT BE SEEN
AS HAVING DONE WORK TO FAVOR
ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER. ONE
BRANCH OR THE OTHER. IT'S JUST
HEADS UP TO THE OTHER SIDE TWO
OR THREE BUSINESS DAYS IS ENOUG
FOR OTHER BRANCHES TO BECOME
EDUCATED, BUT ALSO NOT TOO LONG
THAT THE REQUESTING BRANCH
ISN'T ABLE TO DEVELOP ITS
PROPOSAL IN CONFIDENCE IN THE
WAY THAT THE COUNCILMEMBER HAS
DESCRIBED FOR BOTH SIDES. SO
AGAIN, FOR OUR WORK GOES
PUBLIC, IN A DISCUSSION SETTIN
REPRESENTATION SETTING, WE
WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BRIEF TH
OTHER BRANCH ABOUT WHAT HE HAD
DONE AND THE NATURE OF OUR WORK
AND TWO TO THREE DAYS IS A
GUIDELINE. THERE'S REFERENCE TO
THE FACT THAT IF THE DIRECTOR
THINGS JUST NOT ENOUGH TIME FOR
WHATEVER REASON OR IS
COMPLICATED . I CAN'T ANTICIPAT
WHAT IT WOULD BE BUT I WANTED T
GIVE FLEXIBILITY TO MYSELF OR
SUBSEQUENT DIRECTORS ABOUT THAT
NOTIFICATION. THAT'S REALLY THE
MEAT OF THIS. WE'VE BEEN GIVEN
TWO OR THREE DAYS TO EDUCATE TH
OTHER SIDE ABOUT THE WORK WE
HAVE DONE. THERE IS IMMEDIATELY
THOUGH AN EXEMPTION AND THAT'S
ABOUT FISCAL NOTES. THE
LEGISLATIVE PROCESS, THE
INTRODUCTION OF LEGISLATION AN
FISCAL GOES WITH IT. SO EVERY
PIECE OF LEGISLATION REQUIRES A
FISCAL NOTE BUT MEMBERS OF THE
COMMITTEE KNOW BOTH BRANCHES
OPERATE UNDER A PRETTY DETAILE
PROCESS ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LEGISLATION . THERE'S A SET
OF PROTOCOLS AND TIMING THAT YO
BOTH ALL UNDERSTAND. IN
PARTICULAR, DEVELOPING
LEGISLATION IN CONFIDENCE IS
SOMETHING THAT BOTH BRANCHES
VALUE. SO AGAIN AS STATED HERE
IF THE WORK WE'VE DONE IS
LIMITED TO DEVELOPING A REVENUE
ESTIMATE OR FISCAL IMPACT
ESTIMATE, THAT WOULD BE PART OF
A FISCAL NOTE. YOU WOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED TO NOT HAVE THE SAME
PRE-NOTIFICATION OF THE OTHER
BRANCH SO NOT THE TWO TO THREE
DAYS. THAT WAY THE LEGISLATIVE
PROCESS CAN CONTINUE AND OPERAT
THE WAY IT DOES IN TERMS OF WHE
THINGS ARE PRESENTED TO THE
CLERK. BUT THAT SAID, IF THAT
HAPPENS, IF LEGISLATION IS
INTRODUCED, WE WOULD REACH OUT
TO THE OTHER BRANCH AND LET THE
KNOW THIS IS WHAT WE DID. THIS
IS WHERE THE NUMBER COMES FROM.
IF YOU LIKE TO CHAT WITH US SOM
MORE ABOUT IT, WE'D BE HAPPY TO
DO THAT. AND WE DID THAT. SO
THIS IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL. IT IS
PLAYED OUT IN PRACTICE. THE LAS
POINT ABOUT -- IF WE HAD THOSE
CONVERSATIONS BECAUSE WE ARE I
THE NO SURPRISES SCENARIO AND
GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS OR AFTER
THE FACT ON A FISCAL NOTE, JUST
TO BE CLEAR ABOUT WHAT WE WOULD
SHARE. AND BASICALLY WE WOULD
SHARE OUR WORK. WE WOULD NOT
SHARE , WHAT USING THE POLICY
INTEREST WAS OF THE OTHER BRANC
OR DID THEY CONSIDER THIS OR
THAT? WE WOULD KNOW THE ANSWER
TO THOSE QUESTIONS. BUT I DON'T
SEE THAT THAT WOULD BE
APPROPRIATE FOR US TO ANSWER
THOSE QUESTIONS ON BEHALF OF TH
OTHER BRANCH. YOU SHOULD GO
TALK TO THEM. THEY ARE THE ONES
DOING THAT WORK. THIS IS WHAT W
DID AND THIS IS WHAT WE
CONTRIBUTED. SO I WANT TO BE
RESPECTIVE OF THE PROCESS FOR
EITHER BRANCH AND DEVELOPING
PROPOSALS. A RELATED POINT. WE
MIGHT WELL COME INTO KNOWING
LEGALLY PRIVILEGED INFORMATION.
WE WOULDN'T SHARE THAT EXCEPT
IF THE OTHER PARTY ACROSS THE
TABLE WAS WITHIN THAT PRIVILEG
AS WELL. WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE
SPILLING THOSE IF YOU WILL. BUT
BASICALLY IF WE DO THIS WORK I
CONFIDENCE, KEEP IT IN
CONFIDENCE WERE REASONABLE.,
BUT ALSO SURE IT IN BEFORE THE
WORK IS , IF YOU WILL. UP WITH
THE SLIGHT BACKUP IN A SEC. IN
TERMS OF NEXT STEPS TO GIVE YO
A SENSE OF WHERE THIS COULD GO,
IF YOU APPROVE THE POLICY , WE
PUT IT UP ON THE WEBSITE AND
THEN WE WOULD WORK WITH CENTRA
STAFF IN THE BUDGET OFFICE AND
BRANCHES TO IMPLEMENT AND WORK
OUT A PRACTICAL LEVEL OF WHAT
THOSE PROTOCOLS LOOK LIKE. WE'V
GONE DOWN THIS PATH TO A DEGREE
I DO THINK THIS IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE AGAIN, STEPPING BACK ON
MORE TIME , OUR OFFICE DEPENDS
ON THE FACT THAT WE ARE
CONSIDERED NEUTRAL AND
TRUSTWORTHY . I WOULDN'T WANT U
TO GET SIDEWAYS OF THAT BECAUSE
OF WORK WE HAVE DONE IN
CONFIDENCE FOR ONE BRANCH OR TH
OTHER . BUT I ALSO THINK IT'S
IMPORTANT WE CAN DO THAT WORK I
CONFIDENCE. WE ARE AN ASSET TO
THE CITY. THERE ARE TIMES WHEN
WORK PROGRAM ALLOWS THAT. BEST
REALLY RECENT HAVE THE POLICY.
I THINK IT WILL HELP CLARIFY
THE EXPECTATIONS AND PROTECT TH
NEUTRALITY OF THE OFFICE. I'M
HAPPY TO TAKE QUESTIONS.
>> THANK YOU. THANK YOU SO
MUCH, DIRECTOR. THANKS FOR THE
PROACTIVE WORK THAT YOU'VE DONE
ON THIS POLICY. I REALLY WANT
TO MAKE SURE THAT YOU HEAR FRO
US AS A FORECAST COUNSEL, OUR
APPRECIATION FOR THE
CONFIDENTIALITY OF COURSE, BUT
ALSO THE EXPERTISE THAT'S
WITHIN THE OFFICE. I WANT TO
MAKE SURE THAT YOUR TEAM FEELS
COMFORTABLE IN GENERATING
MATERIALS AND GENERATING
ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE CITY WORK.
WOULD LIKE TO ASK THE BODY TO
HAVE A BIT MORE TIME TO WORK
THROUGH THIS POLICY AND REALLY
APPRECIATE THAT THE INTEREST I
IS IN ENSURING THERE ARE NO
SURPRISES. ONE OF THE THINGS I
THINK THAT'S IMPORTANT IN POLIC
DECISIONS IS SOMETIMES WE WANT
TO TAKE THE FISCAL ANALYSIS OR
REVENUE ANALYSIS AND COUPLE IT
WITH ADDITIONAL CONTEXT. NUMBE
FOUR, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT
COMES TO MIND IS THE NEED FOR U
TO ENSURE THAT THE TIMING IS
RIGHT THE SEQUENCING. SO THE
FULL PICTURE OF WHATEVER
PROPOSAL IS ACCOMPANYING ANY
PROPOSAL THAT AFFECTS REVENUE I
FULLY UNDERSTOOD. SO TO ME,
THAT WOULD MEAN WE WANT TO THIN
ABOUT WAS THE TIMING OF THESE
CONVERSATIONS ARE HAPPENING
BETWEEN THE EXECUTIVE AND
LEGISLATIVE BRANCH, HAVING
ADDITIONAL FOLKS THERE TO
PROVIDE AN INITIAL BRIEFING I
THINK IT'S HELPFUL TO PROVIDE
THE WHY A POLICY IS COMING
FORWARD. THAT'S ON SOMETHING
THAT SHOULD BE INCUMBENT ON YOU
OFFICE TO DO. I ABSOLUTELY ALSO
THINK THAT ONCE INFORMATION IS
GOING TO BE SHARED, THEY SHOULD
BE CITED BOTH FOR THE
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY OF YOUR
TEAM, BUT ALSO TO ENSURE IT HAS
THE WEIGHT OF THE OFFICE BEHIND
IT. SO I'D LOVE FOR THE
COUNCILMEMBERS TO HAVE A CHANC
TO SIT WITH THE POLICY AND MAYB
EVEN THINK THROUGH VARIOUS
SCENARIOS AND WORK THROUGH THAT
RUBRIC WITH CENTRAL STAFF , TH
CITY'S BUDGET OFFICE AND WITH
OUR TEAM FROM THE LEGISLATIVE
BRANCH. AND THE DEPUTY MAYOR
WASHINGTON AND THE FINANCE
DIRECTOR SO THAT WE CAN THINK
THROUGH HOW VARIOUS SCENARIOS
WOULD PLAY OUT. BUT THE ABSOLUT
GOAL IS SHARED BETWEEN THE
EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE
BRANCHES. I SAW A LOT OF NODDIN
AND A LOT OF APPRECIATION THE
NEED FOR THIS. WHAT SUGGESTS
THAT WE CAN EITHER HAVE SOME O
THOSE SCENARIOS SHARED VIA EMAI
AND IF THAT'S EASY TO RESOLVE
QUICKLY, THAT SOUNDS GREAT TO
HAVE AN EMAIL CORRESPONDENCE, O
WE CAN HOLD THIS OVER FOR OUR
FIRST QUARTER MEETING NEXT YEAR
BUT WE WOULD WELCOME ADDITIONAL
THOUGHTS ON THAT BECAUSE I KNOW
WE ALL VALUE YOUR PERSPECTIVE O
THIS I WOULD ASK FOR ADDITIONAL
TIME TO THINK TO THOSE SCENARIO
SO THAT THE DATA AND ANALYTICS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THE POLICY AND
RATIONALE. BECAUSE THOSE
CONVERSATIONS ARE IMPORTANT TO
GET RIGHT INTO SEQUENCE. ANY
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS? SUE JUST
REAL QUICK IN RESPONSE TO THE
DOES MAKE SENSE. WE COULD ADD
SOME LANGUAGE AND I THINK
IDEALLY, IF THE ONE BRANCH
BRIEFING THE OTHER ABOUT WHAT
THIS PROPOSAL IS, WE WOULD BE
PART OF A TEAM THAT WAS DOING
EVERYTHING AND WE COULD PRESENT
IT AND COULD ALLUDE TO THAT MOR
SPECIFICALLY. THAT WOULD BE A
PREFERRED APPROACH. IF ONE
BRANCH WASN'T OFFERING THE OTHE
BRANCH, WE WOULD STILL HAVE THI
OBLIGATION. BUT OUR ONLY
INTEREST HAS BEEN TO BE HELPFUL
AND TO SHARE STUFF, BUT I THIN
THAT WOULD BE A USEFUL ADDITIO
TO DESCRIBE THAT TO THE EXTENT
POSSIBLE, TO COORDINATE WITH TH
SPONSORING BRANCH OF A BRIEFING
THE OTHER. I THINK THAT'S
SIMPLE ENOUGH TO DO. I
APPRECIATE THE IDEA OF SOME
EMAIL EXCHANGE ABOUT THAT. I'M
NOT TRYING TO RUSH THIS, BUT
I'M GLAD TO SEE YOU ENGAGED IN
THINK ABOUT SOME OF THE
IMPLICATIONS AND SCENARIOS.
>> ABSOLUTELY. WE APPRECIATE YO
BROUGHT THIS FORWARD AND HAVE
IT IN THIS FORMAT SO WE CAN
REACT TO A CONCRETE PROPOSAL.
DIRECTOR DINGLEY, PLEASE GO
AHEAD.
>> THANKS. I AGREE. THANK YOU
DIRECTOR NOBLE FOR BRINGING THI
WORD AND FOR YOUR PROACTIVE WOR
ON THIS. THIS IS REALLY HELPFUL
FOR US TO REACT TO. I THINK THE
TWEAKS THAT'S REFERENCED IS
MAKING A LOT OF SENSE. WE COULD
HANDLE THE EMAIL QUICKLY BECAUS
I THINK IT'S RELATIVELY NINE
MINOR IN SCOPE, ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED. SO I APPRECIATE YOU
BRINGING IT FORWARD. I THINK WE
CAN GET THIS TO RESOLUTION
PRETTY QUICKLY. SO THANK YOU
AGAIN.
>> GREAT. DEPUTY DIRECTOR
CANOOCHEE.
>> I WANTED TO THANK THE
FORECAST OFFICER. WE HAD SOME
OPPORTUNITIES TO WORK WITH THEM
THIS WEEK AND SORT OF TEST SOM
OF THESE POLICIES OUT. I WOULD
SAY, WITHOUT REALIZING IT AND
SO WE CAN OFFER SOME OF THOSE
SCENARIOS OF HOW THAT'S PLAYED
OUT INTO SOME WORK RECENTLY AN
AGREE WITH DIRECTOR DINGLEY
THAT I THINK THEY ARE RELATIVEL
MINOR AND HOPEFULLY WE CAN WOR
IT OUT OVER EMAIL. SO IT WOULD
BE GREAT NEXT YEAR AS WE LAUNCH
THE NEW FORECAST COUNSEL TO
HAVE THIS IN PLACE AS WE
CONTINUE OUR WORK TOGETHER.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH. DIRECTOR
NOBLE, I WANT TO THANK YOU AGAI
FOR TAKING US THROUGH THIS
PROPOSED POLICY AND LOOK FORWAR
TO PUTTING OUR HEADS TOGETHER
WITH THE MEMBERS OF THE FORECAS
COUNSEL AND ARE CORRESPONDING
TEAMS HERE TO THINK THROUGH
SOME VARIOUS SCENARIOS TO BE
PREPARED FOR WHAT MAY COME IN
THE FUTURE. BUT WE REALLY WANT
TO THANK YOU FOR THE
COLLABORATIVE WORK THAN YOU
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OFFER OUR
ANALYSTS AND YOUR ENGAGEMENT
WITH EACH BRANCH I THINK HAS
HELPED TO INFORM EXISTING POLIC
ALREADY AND IS FURTHER A
COLLABORATIVE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN BOTH BRANCHES. THAT'S
THE GOAL, TO MAKE SURE EVERYONE
HAS ACCESS TO THE DATA WE NEED
AND THAT IS WELL INFORMED AND W
CAN COLLECTIVELY MOVE FORWARD
ON POLICY ISSUES. SO THANKS FOR
HELPING TO FLUSH OF THIS POLICY
COLLIES, LET'S PLAN TO HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERSATIONS
TO THE DEGREE THAT WE NEED TO
WORK THROUGH THE PROCESS FOR A
VOTE. WHETHER THAT'S A VOTE VIA
EMAIL OR RECONVENING QUICKLY
THAT WE WILL WORK THAT OUT WITH
YOU ALL HERE SHORTLY. BUT IT
DOESN'T SOUND LIKE THERE'S A
HUGE TIME CRUNCH. BUT IDEALLY T
HAVE THIS WORKED OUT QUARTER
ONE OR PRIOR TO QUARTER ONE IS
THE GOAL. WE WILL LET THIS
HANGOVER TOO LONG, DIRECTOR
NOBLE.
>> ALL GOOD. WE WILL OPERATE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS AND
ESSENTIALLY ALREADY ARE. WE WIL
COORDINATE WITH SPONSORING
BRANCHES TO BE SURE WE ARE NOT
GETTING AHEAD OF ANYBODY . BUT
IN ANY CASE, MUCH APPRECIATED
LOOK FORWARD TO THOSE
CONVERSATIONS.
>> EXCELLENT. MORE TO COME. WE
ARE AT THE END OF OUR FORMAL
AGENDA. DO YOU HAVE ANYTHING
ELSE YOU'D LIKE TO SHARE WITH A
BODY, DIRECTOR NOBLE OR ANYBODY
FROM THE FORECAST OFFICE?
>> I DO NOT.
>> MY INTERNET REMAINS, SO WE
ARE GOOD. WE HAVE REACHED THE
END OF OUR AGENDA BUT WE'VE ALS
REACHED THE END OF OUR OFFICIAL
MEETINGS THIS YEAR SO I WANT T
THANK YOU ALL FOR ENGAGING. IT'
BEEN MY HONOR TO SERVE AS CHAIR
OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS NOW AND
REALLY APPRECIATE THE WORK THAT
THIS BODY IS DOING. IT IS GOIN
TO HELP INFORM OUR CONVERSATION
IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS HERE IN
THE LAST FEW WEEKS AS WE
FINALIZE THE BUDGET. LOOK
FORWARD TO SEEING YOU ON FRIDAY
AT THE BUDGET COMMITTEE MEETING
AND WE WILL CHAT MORE WITH THE
TEAM HERE ABOUT THAT PROPOSED
AGENDA AND TOPICS. BUT I REALL
APPRECIATE THIS INFORMATION IS
BEING SHARED OUT TO THE PUBLIC
THE SEATTLE CHANNEL. THANK YOU
FOR BROADCASTING. AND TO ALL OF
THE TECHNICAL SUPPORT STAFF THA
MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO GET THIS OU
THE DOOR. THANK YOU,
COLLEAGUES. NO ADDITIONAL
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS, WE ARE
ADJOURNED. THANK YOU. SEE YOU
FRIDAY.